TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12423815
Played Aug 14Finished
Mark Robin Wagner
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711113711811––
Petr Sebera
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMark Robin Wagner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMark Robin Wagner above · Petr Sebera below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Mark Robin Wagner at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:40What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1634 vs Sebera 1711
Sebera
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 40% vs Sebera 20%
Wagner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 60% vs Sebera 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner +1 · Sebera -4
Sebera
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wagner)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebera form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.57 / Sebera 2.25
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wagner)-4.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12423815
Wagner1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 29 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Sebera2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 162 of 346
Down 0–1, comes back29% 49 of 172
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerSeberaBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 86 vs 639 / 124853.5%51.2%46 / 86 vs 639 / 1248Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.57/Sebera 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sebera won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Wagner10
LSep 6 · 13:30A. Brazda1.7311116143M. Wagner2.006911121LSep 6 · 12:00A. Brazda1.7311911113M. Wagner2.00711771WSep 6 · 11:00J. Louda2.101081581M. Wagner1.67121113113WSep 6 · 10:30M. Wagner1.7310101112123P. Saleny1.881212710102LSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:00V. Vejvoda2.251111133M. Wagner1.5773110WSep 6 · 07:00P. Saleny2.2081070M. Wagner1.611112113LSep 6 · 06:30M. Wagner1.5375111192M. Klement2.38111189113LSep 4 · 03:28J. Simecek1.801111113M. Wagner1.918880WSep 4 · 02:30J. Simecek1.73112911102M. Wagner2.00811119123
P. Sebera10
LAug 16 · 02:58M. Sychra1.8311911113P. Sebera1.83811961LAug 16 · 02:00J. Louda1.8312116113P. Sebera1.831061191WAug 16 · 24:30P. Sebera1.61101111113M. Regner2.20126881WAug 15 · 23:00P. Sebera2.631111113M. Pikous1.446790LAug 15 · 22:00M. Sychra1.911111113P. Sebera1.800870WAug 15 · 09:00P. Sebera1.6711127113M. Regner2.106101171LAug 15 · 08:30P. Sebera1.9191114592J. Tazler1.801191211113WAug 15 · 07:00P. Sebera1.731115113M. Regner2.0051340LAug 15 · 06:00P. Saleny1.539111313113P. Sebera2.381113111172LAug 14 · 02:30J. Tazler1.8351214113P. Sebera1.8311101221
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