TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12366639
Played Aug 7Finished
Mark Robin Wagner
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412711116117––
Ales Bayer
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMark Robin Wagner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMark Robin Wagner above · Ales Bayer below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 79 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Mark Robin Wagner at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Mark Robin Wagner 5–2 Ales Bayer Ales Bayer has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:15What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Wagner
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1630 vs Bayer 1696
Bayer
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 60% vs Bayer 80%
Bayer
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 60% vs Bayer 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner +3 · Bayer +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bayer form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.61 / Bayer 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Wagner)-1.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12366639
Wagner1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 22 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Bayer2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 148 of 368
Down 0–1, comes back21% 38 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeWagner5wins
AwayBayer2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderWagner leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner80%4 of 5
AwayBayern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner5Bayer2n = 7Wagner took 5 of 7
S2Wagner4Bayer3n = 7Wagner took 4 of 7
S3Wagner3Bayer4n = 7Bayer took 4 of 7
S4Wagner3Bayer2n = 5Wagner took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricWagnerBayerW − BBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match41.339.1+2.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerBayerBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 78 vs 452 / 97053.9%46.6%42 / 78 vs 452 / 970Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.61/Bayer 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 26 · 15:00M. Wagner—8111091A. Bayer—11912113
LJul 26 · 12:58M. Wagner—118851A. Bayer—71111113
WJul 26 · 10:30M. Wagner—1312113A. Bayer—111090
WJul 23 · 24:00M. Wagner—1111123A. Bayer—84100
WJul 15 · 10:30M. Wagner—1161511113A. Bayer—71117992
WJul 15 · 08:30M. Wagner—71112113A. Bayer—1181051
WJul 14 · 24:00M. Wagner—1410811113A. Bayer—121211982
M. Wagner10
LSep 6 · 13:30A. Brazda1.7311116143M. Wagner2.006911121LSep 6 · 12:00A. Brazda1.7311911113M. Wagner2.00711771WSep 6 · 11:00J. Louda2.101081581M. Wagner1.67121113113WSep 6 · 10:30M. Wagner1.7310101112123P. Saleny1.881212710102LSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:00V. Vejvoda2.251111133M. Wagner1.5773110WSep 6 · 07:00P. Saleny2.2081070M. Wagner1.611112113LSep 6 · 06:30M. Wagner1.5375111192M. Klement2.38111189113LSep 4 · 03:28J. Simecek1.801111113M. Wagner1.918880WSep 4 · 02:30J. Simecek1.73112911102M. Wagner2.00811119123
A. Bayer10
LAug 7 · 03:30M. Wagner1.6011119113A. Bayer2.20691151WAug 7 · 02:30A. Bayer1.831411113P. Pycha1.8312590WAug 7 · 24:00A. Bayer1.611111113M. Sobisek2.209790WAug 6 · 23:00M. Vizek2.50111310742A. Bayer1.509111211113WAug 5 · 08:58A. Bayer1.671111123V. Vejvoda2.1065100WAug 5 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.83113100A. Bayer1.831311123LAug 5 · 07:00M. Klement1.6161111113A. Bayer2.20117491WAug 5 · 06:30A. Bayer2.3811112113P. Sebera1.53951181LAug 4 · 03:30A. Bayer2.3891511892J. Hradecky1.531113611113LAug 4 · 02:30J. Hradecky1.737111011113A. Bayer2.0011912682
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