TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12366656
Played Aug 7Finished
Ales Bayer
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412115119––––
Patrik Pycha
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:15 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timePatrik Pycha to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAles Bayer above · Patrik Pycha below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 62 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Patrik Pycha at 54.7%
62 points played in total.
H2H Ales Bayer 10–13 Patrik Pycha Ales Bayer has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:15What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pycha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-13 in 23
Pycha
Wrong
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bayer 1696 vs Pycha 1690
Bayer
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bayer 80% vs Pycha 60%
Bayer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bayer 60% vs Pycha 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bayer -1 · Pycha +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pycha) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bayer form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBayer 1.83 / Pycha 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pycha)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12366656
Bayer1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Pycha1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBayer6wins
AwayPycha4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBayer leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBayer66.7%4 of 6
AwayPycha50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bayer6Pycha4n = 10Bayer took 6 of 10
S2Bayer3Pycha7n = 10Pycha took 7 of 10
S3Bayer6Pycha4n = 10Bayer took 6 of 10
S4Bayer5Pycha3n = 8Bayer took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBayerPychaB − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.534.3+4.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBayerPychaBasisWin rate · lifetime451 / 969 vs 518 / 98346.5%52.7%451 / 969 vs 518 / 983Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PychaBayer 1.83/Pycha 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pycha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Bayer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 14 · 02:58A. Bayer—11911862P. Pycha—611611113
WJul 13 · 23:00A. Bayer—12911113P. Pycha—1011831
WJun 30 · 24:30A. Bayer—11611113P. Pycha—811571
WJun 2 · 03:00A. Bayer—118146113P. Pycha—811121152
LJun 1 · 23:00A. Bayer—9280P. Pycha—1111113
WMay 23 · 23:30A. Bayer—91111113P. Pycha—111131
WMay 10 · 03:28A. Bayer—101111113P. Pycha—128271
LMay 9 · 23:00A. Bayer—1191191P. Pycha—61113113
LMay 5 · 24:30A. Bayer—61080P. Pycha—1112113
WMar 1 · 01:30A. Bayer—11117113P. Pycha—961191
A. Bayer10
LAug 7 · 03:30M. Wagner1.6011119113A. Bayer2.20691151LAug 7 · 01:30M. Wagner1.6114711113A. Bayer2.201211671WAug 7 · 24:00A. Bayer1.611111113M. Sobisek2.209790WAug 6 · 23:00M. Vizek2.50111310742A. Bayer1.509111211113WAug 5 · 08:58A. Bayer1.671111123V. Vejvoda2.1065100WAug 5 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.83113100A. Bayer1.831311123LAug 5 · 07:00M. Klement1.6161111113A. Bayer2.20117491WAug 5 · 06:30A. Bayer2.3811112113P. Sebera1.53951181LAug 4 · 03:30A. Bayer2.3891511892J. Hradecky1.531113611113LAug 4 · 02:30J. Hradecky1.737111011113A. Bayer2.0011912682
P. Pycha10
LSep 5 · 02:58T. Janata1.80671111113P. Pycha1.9111117372LSep 5 · 02:00R. Krejci2.501211113P. Pycha1.5010350LSep 5 · 24:30P. Pycha1.9151112592T. Janata1.801131011113LSep 4 · 23:00P. Pycha2.0057150S. Kadavy1.731111173WSep 4 · 22:00D. Kouble3.2510750P. Pycha1.331211113LAug 29 · 02:58T. Janata1.9111118113P. Pycha1.80771171WAug 29 · 02:00P. Budinsky2.20771121P. Pycha1.6111118113LAug 29 · 24:30P. Pycha1.91712111482T. Janata1.801114812113LAug 28 · 23:00P. Pycha2.009111111112S. Kadavy1.73111369133LAug 28 · 22:00D. Tuma2.1091111133P. Pycha1.671186111
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