TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12358797
Played Aug 4Finished
Ales Bayer
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111513116811911
Jakub Hradecky
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:07 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Hradecky to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Bayer above · Jakub Hradecky below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 104 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Hradecky at 57.3%
104 points played in total.
H2H Ales Bayer 6–10 Jakub Hradecky Ales Bayer has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hradecky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Hradecky
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bayer 1684 vs Hradecky 1632
Bayer
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bayer 60% vs Hradecky 80%
Hradecky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bayer 80% vs Hradecky 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bayer -1 · Hradecky +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Hradecky) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hradecky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBayer 2.38 / Hradecky 1.53
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Hradecky)-4.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12358797
Bayer2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog40% won 147 of 367
Down 0–1, comes back22% 39 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 98
Hradecky1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 64 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it100% 33 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it81% 42 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBayer4wins
AwayHradecky6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHradecky leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBayer66.7%4 of 6
AwayHradecky100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bayer6Hradecky4n = 10Bayer took 6 of 10
S2Bayer4Hradecky6n = 10Hradecky took 6 of 10
S3Bayer3Hradecky7n = 10Hradecky took 7 of 10
S4Bayer4Hradecky4n = 8split evenly
S5Bayer2Hradecky3n = 5Hradecky took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBayerHradeckyB − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.442.7−2.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBayerHradeckyBasisWin rate · lifetime449 / 973 vs 237 / 45846.2%51.8%449 / 973 vs 237 / 458Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HradeckyBayer 2.38/Hradecky 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.3%
Hradecky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hradecky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 4 · 02:30A. Bayer—11912682J. Hradecky—7111011113
WJul 23 · 02:00A. Bayer—111379113J. Hradecky—611111192
LJul 22 · 02:30A. Bayer—8870J. Hradecky—1111113
WJun 19 · 09:28A. Bayer—118119123J. Hradecky—811511102
LJun 19 · 07:00A. Bayer—811731J. Hradecky—11911113
LJun 12 · 12:30A. Bayer—1010100J. Hradecky—1212123
WJun 11 · 03:09A. Bayer—111011133J. Hradecky—6126111
LJun 10 · 23:30A. Bayer—101151862J. Hradecky—1281116113
LJun 2 · 02:30A. Bayer—11761162J. Hradecky—811119113
WMay 19 · 24:00A. Bayer—11115113J. Hradecky—751171
A. Bayer10
LAug 7 · 03:30M. Wagner1.6011119113A. Bayer2.20691151WAug 7 · 02:30A. Bayer1.831411113P. Pycha1.8312590LAug 7 · 01:30M. Wagner1.6114711113A. Bayer2.201211671WAug 7 · 24:00A. Bayer1.611111113M. Sobisek2.209790WAug 6 · 23:00M. Vizek2.50111310742A. Bayer1.509111211113WAug 5 · 08:58A. Bayer1.671111123V. Vejvoda2.1065100WAug 5 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.83113100A. Bayer1.831311123LAug 5 · 07:00M. Klement1.6161111113A. Bayer2.20117491WAug 5 · 06:30A. Bayer2.3811112113P. Sebera1.53951181LAug 4 · 02:30J. Hradecky1.737111011113A. Bayer2.0011912682
J. Hradecky10
WSep 3 · 17:00J. Stolfa1.733760J. Hradecky2.001111113LSep 3 · 16:30J. Hradecky1.809411131M. Sobisek1.9111116153LSep 3 · 15:00J. Hradecky1.918141281J. Stolfa1.80111214113LSep 3 · 14:00D. Tuma2.008111510113J. Hradecky1.73118131252WSep 2 · 02:00M. Chlebecek1.838680J. Hradecky1.831111113LSep 2 · 24:30J. Hradecky1.67114961M. Sobisek2.1051111113LSep 1 · 23:00J. Hradecky2.75119671J. Tazler1.4071111113LSep 1 · 22:00M. Regner1.441311163J. Hradecky2.63118140LAug 31 · 20:59S. Kadavy1.6161111113J. Hradecky2.20119981WAug 4 · 02:30J. Hradecky1.737111011113A. Bayer2.0011912682
Upcoming Matches
A. Bayer
Nothing scheduled
J. Hradecky
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.