TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12351565
Played Aug 4Finished
Jakub Hradecky
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111191012116118
Ales Bayer
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Hradecky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingJakub Hradecky above · Ales Bayer below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 96 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Hradecky at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Hradecky 9–6 Ales Bayer Ales Bayer has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:42What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hradecky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Hradecky
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hradecky 1619 vs Bayer 1697
Bayer
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hradecky 80% vs Bayer 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hradecky 70% vs Bayer 90%
Bayer
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hradecky +1 · Bayer +3
Bayer
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bayer) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bayer form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHradecky 1.73 / Bayer 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Bayer)+7.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12351565
Hradecky1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 64 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it100% 33 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it81% 42 of 52
Bayer2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog40% won 147 of 367
Down 0–1, comes back22% 39 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHradecky6wins
AwayBayer4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHradecky leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHradecky100%4 of 4
AwayBayer66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hradecky4Bayer6n = 10Bayer took 6 of 10
S2Hradecky6Bayer4n = 10Hradecky took 6 of 10
S3Hradecky8Bayer2n = 10Hradecky took 8 of 10
S4Hradecky4Bayer4n = 8split evenly
S5Hradecky2Bayer2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHradeckyBayerH − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.239.8+2.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHradeckyBayerBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 457 vs 449 / 97251.6%46.2%236 / 457 vs 449 / 972Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HradeckyHradecky 1.73/Bayer 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Bayer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hradecky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 23 · 02:00J. Hradecky—611111192A. Bayer—111379113
WJul 22 · 02:30J. Hradecky—1111113A. Bayer—8870
LJun 19 · 09:28J. Hradecky—811511102A. Bayer—118119123
WJun 19 · 07:00J. Hradecky—11911113A. Bayer—811731
WJun 12 · 12:30J. Hradecky—1212123A. Bayer—1010100
LJun 11 · 03:09J. Hradecky—6126111A. Bayer—111011133
WJun 10 · 23:30J. Hradecky—1281116113A. Bayer—101151862
WJun 2 · 02:30J. Hradecky—811119113A. Bayer—11761162
LMay 19 · 24:00J. Hradecky—751171A. Bayer—11115113
WApr 11 · 23:00J. Hradecky—101111133A. Bayer—1298111
J. Hradecky10
WSep 3 · 17:00J. Stolfa1.733760J. Hradecky2.001111113LSep 3 · 16:30J. Hradecky1.809411131M. Sobisek1.9111116153LSep 3 · 15:00J. Hradecky1.918141281J. Stolfa1.80111214113LSep 3 · 14:00D. Tuma2.008111510113J. Hradecky1.73118131252WSep 2 · 02:00M. Chlebecek1.838680J. Hradecky1.831111113LSep 2 · 24:30J. Hradecky1.67114961M. Sobisek2.1051111113LSep 1 · 23:00J. Hradecky2.75119671J. Tazler1.4071111113LSep 1 · 22:00M. Regner1.441311163J. Hradecky2.63118140LAug 31 · 20:59S. Kadavy1.6161111113J. Hradecky2.20119981LAug 31 · 20:00J. Hradecky2.101011118112S. Kadavy1.67122811133
A. Bayer10
LAug 7 · 03:30M. Wagner1.6011119113A. Bayer2.20691151WAug 7 · 02:30A. Bayer1.831411113P. Pycha1.8312590LAug 7 · 01:30M. Wagner1.6114711113A. Bayer2.201211671WAug 7 · 24:00A. Bayer1.611111113M. Sobisek2.209790WAug 6 · 23:00M. Vizek2.50111310742A. Bayer1.509111211113WAug 5 · 08:58A. Bayer1.671111123V. Vejvoda2.1065100WAug 5 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.83113100A. Bayer1.831311123LAug 5 · 07:00M. Klement1.6161111113A. Bayer2.20117491WAug 5 · 06:30A. Bayer2.3811112113P. Sebera1.53951181LAug 4 · 03:30A. Bayer2.3891511892J. Hradecky1.531113611113
Upcoming Matches
J. Hradecky
A. Bayer
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