TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12375967
Played Aug 7Finished
Mark Robin Wagner
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116119911115––
Ales Bayer
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:56 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMark Robin Wagner to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMark Robin Wagner above · Ales Bayer below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 73 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Mark Robin Wagner at 58.9%
73 points played in total.
H2H Mark Robin Wagner 7–3 Ales Bayer Ales Bayer has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 02:56What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Wagner
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1658 vs Bayer 1682
Bayer
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 80% vs Bayer 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 60% vs Bayer 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner +4 · Bayer +1
Wagner
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bayer form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.60 / Bayer 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Wagner)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12375967
Wagner1.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 22 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Bayer2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 148 of 368
Down 0–1, comes back21% 38 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWagner7wins
AwayBayer3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderWagner leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner75%6 of 8
AwayBayern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner8Bayer2n = 10Wagner took 8 of 10
S2Wagner6Bayer4n = 10Wagner took 6 of 10
S3Wagner4Bayer6n = 10Bayer took 6 of 10
S4Wagner5Bayer3n = 8Wagner took 5 of 8
S5Wagner2Bayer1n = 3Wagner took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWagnerBayerW − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.138.9+3.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerBayerBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 79 vs 452 / 97154.4%46.6%43 / 79 vs 452 / 971Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.60/Bayer 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.9%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 03:30M. Wagner—11119113A. Bayer—691151
WAug 7 · 01:30M. Wagner—14711113A. Bayer—1211671
LJul 26 · 17:29M. Wagner—121168102A. Bayer—1041111123
LJul 26 · 15:00M. Wagner—8111091A. Bayer—11912113
LJul 26 · 12:58M. Wagner—118851A. Bayer—71111113
WJul 26 · 10:30M. Wagner—1312113A. Bayer—111090
WJul 23 · 24:00M. Wagner—1111123A. Bayer—84100
WJul 15 · 10:30M. Wagner—1161511113A. Bayer—71117992
WJul 15 · 08:30M. Wagner—71112113A. Bayer—1181051
WJul 14 · 24:00M. Wagner—1410811113A. Bayer—121211982
M. Wagner10
LSep 6 · 13:30A. Brazda1.7311116143M. Wagner2.006911121LSep 6 · 12:00A. Brazda1.7311911113M. Wagner2.00711771WSep 6 · 11:00J. Louda2.101081581M. Wagner1.67121113113WSep 6 · 10:30M. Wagner1.7310101112123P. Saleny1.881212710102LSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:00V. Vejvoda2.251111133M. Wagner1.5773110WSep 6 · 07:00P. Saleny2.2081070M. Wagner1.611112113LSep 6 · 06:30M. Wagner1.5375111192M. Klement2.38111189113LSep 4 · 03:28J. Simecek1.801111113M. Wagner1.918880WSep 4 · 02:30J. Simecek1.73112911102M. Wagner2.00811119123
A. Bayer10
WAug 7 · 02:30A. Bayer1.831411113P. Pycha1.8312590LAug 7 · 01:30M. Wagner1.6114711113A. Bayer2.201211671WAug 7 · 24:00A. Bayer1.611111113M. Sobisek2.209790WAug 6 · 23:00M. Vizek2.50111310742A. Bayer1.509111211113WAug 5 · 08:58A. Bayer1.671111123V. Vejvoda2.1065100WAug 5 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.83113100A. Bayer1.831311123LAug 5 · 07:00M. Klement1.6161111113A. Bayer2.20117491WAug 5 · 06:30A. Bayer2.3811112113P. Sebera1.53951181LAug 4 · 03:30A. Bayer2.3891511892J. Hradecky1.531113611113LAug 4 · 02:30J. Hradecky1.737111011113A. Bayer2.0011912682
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