TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12305822
Played Jul 27Finished
Pawel Chojnacki
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
4117111012––––
Jerzy Michalik
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:57 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeJerzy Michalik to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Chojnacki above · Jerzy Michalik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 55 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Jerzy Michalik at 57.2%
55 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Chojnacki 17–23 Jerzy Michalik Pawel Chojnacki has won 17 of their 40 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:57What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Michalik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-23 in 40
Michalik
Correct
gap of 6 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chojnacki 1266 vs Michalik 1410
Michalik
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chojnacki 40% vs Michalik 60%
Michalik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chojnacki 50% vs Michalik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chojnacki +1 · Michalik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Michalik) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chojnacki form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChojnacki 1.91 / Michalik 1.80
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Michalik)+9.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12305822
Chojnacki1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 110 of 366
Down 0–1, comes back15% 35 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 150
Michalik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 144 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it96% 70 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it85% 103 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChojnacki5wins
AwayMichalik5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChojnackin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMichalik62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chojnacki2Michalik8n = 10Michalik took 8 of 10
S2Chojnacki6Michalik4n = 10Chojnacki took 6 of 10
S3Chojnacki5Michalik5n = 10split evenly
S4Chojnacki5Michalik3n = 8Chojnacki took 5 of 8
S5Chojnacki2Michalik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChojnackiMichalikC − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.341.1−0.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChojnackiMichalikBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 822 vs 557 / 119238.1%46.7%313 / 822 vs 557 / 1192Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikChojnacki 1.91/Michalik 1.80
Hit
What we said
60.5%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 22 · 22:55P. Chojnacki351171161J. Michalik4113116113
WJul 22 · 16:55P. Chojnacki4111811113J. Michalik37811991
WJul 14 · 24:50P. Chojnacki4111118113J. Michalik34771191
WJul 8 · 21:20P. Chojnacki47713115113J. Michalik42111151142
LJul 8 · 15:25P. Chojnacki5091161592J. Michalik521161113113
LJul 7 · 24:50P. Chojnacki208750J. Michalik331111113
WJul 1 · 21:20P. Chojnacki4471112143J. Michalik3811510121
LJul 1 · 15:25P. Chojnacki48911114132J. Michalik52117811153
WJun 22 · 18:55P. Chojnacki527131011113J. Michalik48111112862
LJun 19 · 04:40P. Chojnacki2561090J. Michalik341112113
P. Chojnacki10
LJul 28 · 02:10P. Chojnacki2.7511560A. Kubiak1.401311113LJul 28 · 24:50P. Chojnacki4.50511531M. Guzik1.1711811113LJul 27 · 23:45P. Chojnacki3.4051040M. Krutak1.301112113WJul 27 · 21:00P. Chojnacki1.831111113K. Kwiatkowski1.836920LJul 27 · 19:40A. Fomin1.33111110113P. Chojnacki3.25461281LJul 27 · 18:55M. Guzik1.1781111113P. Chojnacki4.50114461WJul 27 · 18:10P. Chojnacki3.00101213113A. Kubiak1.3612101171LJul 27 · 16:35P. Chojnacki2.1010680K. Kwiatkowski1.671211113LJul 27 · 15:50M. Krutak1.44118711113P. Chojnacki2.6351111952WJul 27 · 02:35P. Chojnacki3.0011415113H. Tkaczyk1.369111391
J. Michalik10
WSep 11 · 04:20H. Tkaczyk1.438980J. Michalik2.501111113LSep 11 · 03:30W. Stechly4.0551117113J. Michalik1.181191581LSep 11 · 02:45J. Michalik1.47111181082M. Machelski2.39881112113LSep 11 · 01:10J. Michalik1.9011712972J. Zelezik1.805111011113WSep 11 · 24:20M. Guzik1.76791191J. Michalik1.9611117113WSep 10 · 23:05J. Michalik1.53411119113M. Machelski2.3511661172LSep 10 · 21:30J. Michalik3.50131260D. Molenda1.251514113LSep 10 · 20:20J. Michalik3.259870M. Guzik1.301111113LSep 10 · 18:45J. Michalik2.6081111582H. Tkaczyk1.41118811113LSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik2.101778121J. Zelezik1.60151111143
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