TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12305820
Played Jul 27Finished
Pawel Chojnacki
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111012411––––
Michal Krutak
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:57 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Krutak to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Chojnacki above · Michal Krutak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 53 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Michal Krutak at 64.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Chojnacki 4–11 Michal Krutak Pawel Chojnacki has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:57What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Krutak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-11 in 15
Krutak
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chojnacki 1257 vs Krutak 1557
Krutak
Correct
both rated, 301 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chojnacki 40% vs Krutak 60%
Krutak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chojnacki 40% vs Krutak 70%
Krutak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chojnacki -1 · Krutak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Krutak) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krutak form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChojnacki 3.40 / Krutak 1.30
Signal prob.17% / 83%
Edge (Krutak)+11.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12305820
Chojnacki3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 110 of 366
Down 0–1, comes back15% 35 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 150
Krutak1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 104 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 62 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChojnacki3wins
AwayKrutak7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKrutak leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChojnacki60%3 of 5
AwayKrutak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chojnacki5Krutak5n = 10split evenly
S2Chojnacki7Krutak3n = 10Chojnacki took 7 of 10
S3Chojnacki4Krutak6n = 10Krutak took 6 of 10
S4Chojnacki5Krutak5n = 10split evenly
S5Chojnacki0Krutak5n = 5Krutak took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChojnackiKrutakC − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.144.7−1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChojnackiKrutakBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 823 vs 155 / 24538%63.3%313 / 823 vs 155 / 245Avg sets wonper match1.72.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.840.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrutakChojnacki 3.40/Krutak 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.3%
Krutak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Krutak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 27 · 15:50P. Chojnacki4151111952M. Krutak48118711113
WJul 2 · 23:20P. Chojnacki3711114113M. Krutak29851151
LJul 2 · 17:20P. Chojnacki4171111392M. Krutak48119611113
LJun 16 · 02:10P. Chojnacki29127461M. Krutak43101111113
LJun 15 · 20:05P. Chojnacki5061781182M. Krutak571115119113
LMay 15 · 01:30P. Chojnacki581291111152M. Krutak571011136173
LMay 14 · 19:30P. Chojnacki50911111182M. Krutak48118513113
WApr 17 · 04:20P. Chojnacki4211713113M. Krutak344111181
LApr 16 · 18:45P. Chojnacki409141071M. Krutak46111212113
WApr 11 · 23:35P. Chojnacki4312119113M. Krutak371081181
P. Chojnacki10
LJul 28 · 02:10P. Chojnacki2.7511560A. Kubiak1.401311113LJul 28 · 24:50P. Chojnacki4.50511531M. Guzik1.1711811113LJul 27 · 22:10P. Chojnacki1.9147100J. Michalik1.801111123WJul 27 · 21:00P. Chojnacki1.831111113K. Kwiatkowski1.836920LJul 27 · 19:40A. Fomin1.33111110113P. Chojnacki3.25461281LJul 27 · 18:55M. Guzik1.1781111113P. Chojnacki4.50114461WJul 27 · 18:10P. Chojnacki3.00101213113A. Kubiak1.3612101171LJul 27 · 16:35P. Chojnacki2.1010680K. Kwiatkowski1.671211113LJul 27 · 15:50M. Krutak1.44118711113P. Chojnacki2.6351111952WJul 27 · 02:35P. Chojnacki3.0011415113H. Tkaczyk1.369111391
M. Krutak10
LSep 8 · 01:30M. Krutak1.836850J. Skorupa1.831111113WSep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.0091080M. Krutak1.731112113WSep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik1.838760M. Krutak1.831111113WSep 7 · 22:50M. Krutak2.501111113H. Tkaczyk1.504580WSep 7 · 21:45M. Krutak1.7311179113A. Kubiak2.009151151WSep 7 · 20:05M. Krutak1.8311811113J. Skorupa1.83511381WSep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.2091111932M. Krutak1.61117811113WSep 7 · 17:45A. Kubiak2.101091161M. Krutak1.6712118113WSep 7 · 16:55M. Krutak2.631411116113H. Tkaczyk1.44127131192WJul 27 · 15:50M. Krutak1.44118711113P. Chojnacki2.6351111952
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