TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12299222
Played Jul 27Finished
Pawel Chojnacki
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1194111513119––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:00 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Chojnacki above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 83 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 60.3%
83 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Chojnacki 25–46 Henryk Tkaczyk Pawel Chojnacki has won 25 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:00What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-46 in 71
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 21 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chojnacki 1245 vs Tkaczyk 1614
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 369 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chojnacki 60% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chojnacki 40% vs Tkaczyk 90%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chojnacki +1 · Tkaczyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chojnacki form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChojnacki 3.00 / Tkaczyk 1.36
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+8.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12299222
Chojnacki3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 110 of 365
Down 0–1, comes back15% 34 of 233
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 150
Tkaczyk1.36
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 335 of 484
Up 2–0, closes it96% 191 of 200
Up 1–0, closes it83% 249 of 301
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChojnacki3wins
AwayTkaczyk7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChojnacki66.7%2 of 3
AwayTkaczyk85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chojnacki3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Chojnacki3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Chojnacki1Tkaczyk9n = 10Tkaczyk took 9 of 10
S4Chojnacki2Tkaczyk2n = 4split evenly
S5Chojnacki2Tkaczyk1n = 3Chojnacki took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricChojnackiTkaczykC − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.638.6−7.0per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChojnackiTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 815 vs 884 / 134638%65.7%310 / 815 vs 884 / 1346Avg sets wonper match1.72.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykChojnacki 3.00/Tkaczyk 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.8%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chojnacki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 26 · 18:10P. Chojnacki2687110H. Tkaczyk351111133
LJul 13 · 22:35P. Chojnacki199460H. Tkaczyk331111113
LJul 13 · 15:00P. Chojnacki207490H. Tkaczyk331111113
LJul 3 · 01:25P. Chojnacki196760H. Tkaczyk331111113
WJul 2 · 19:20P. Chojnacki51611517123H. Tkaczyk561191115102
WJun 24 · 03:55P. Chojnacki47114118133H. Tkaczyk48911611112
LJun 23 · 21:55P. Chojnacki207760H. Tkaczyk331111113
LJun 17 · 03:55P. Chojnacki2131260H. Tkaczyk361114113
LJun 16 · 21:55P. Chojnacki5012119992H. Tkaczyk501071111113
WJun 15 · 22:55P. Chojnacki43111110113H. Tkaczyk29361281
P. Chojnacki10
LJul 28 · 02:10P. Chojnacki2.7511560A. Kubiak1.401311113LJul 28 · 24:50P. Chojnacki4.50511531M. Guzik1.1711811113LJul 27 · 23:45P. Chojnacki3.4051040M. Krutak1.301112113LJul 27 · 22:10P. Chojnacki1.9147100J. Michalik1.801111123WJul 27 · 21:00P. Chojnacki1.831111113K. Kwiatkowski1.836920LJul 27 · 19:40A. Fomin1.33111110113P. Chojnacki3.25461281LJul 27 · 18:55M. Guzik1.1781111113P. Chojnacki4.50114461WJul 27 · 18:10P. Chojnacki3.00101213113A. Kubiak1.3612101171LJul 27 · 16:35P. Chojnacki2.1010680K. Kwiatkowski1.671211113LJul 27 · 15:50M. Krutak1.44118711113P. Chojnacki2.6351111952
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 14 · 05:10T. Kordaszewski8.004660H. Tkaczyk1.031111113WSep 14 · 04:10W. Stechly5.709790H. Tkaczyk1.091111113WSep 14 · 03:30D. Maszczynski5.004370H. Tkaczyk1.111111113LSep 11 · 04:20H. Tkaczyk1.438980J. Michalik2.501111113WSep 11 · 03:05H. Tkaczyk1.859111111113M. Guzik1.8011913792WSep 11 · 01:55H. Tkaczyk1.561111113J. Zelezik2.197980WSep 11 · 24:45W. Stechly4.18911101142H. Tkaczyk1.19116123113WSep 10 · 23:55H. Tkaczyk1.2511111211113M. Machelski3.4513814632LSep 10 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk2.205840D. Molenda1.571111113WSep 10 · 21:05H. Tkaczyk1.90131169113M. Guzik1.80115111182
Upcoming Matches
P. Chojnacki
Nothing scheduled
H. Tkaczyk
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