TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13126278
Played Sep 14Finished
Witold Stechly
Home
5.70
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711911––––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.09
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 74.9% is still 74.9%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
74.9%
74.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
58 points played in total.
Set by set
911711911––––
H2H Witold Stechly 4–22 Henryk Tkaczyk Witold Stechly has won 4 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.09 (84%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-22 in 26
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 18 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stechly 1138 vs Tkaczyk 1568
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 430 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stechly 20% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stechly 30% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stechly -2 · Tkaczyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (80%) is below what odds imply (92%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStechly 5.70 / Tkaczyk 1.09
Signal prob.12% / 88%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13126278
Stechly5.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog20% won 48 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back11% 18 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 105
Tkaczyk1.09
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 394 of 567
Up 2–0, closes it94% 222 of 237
Up 1–0, closes it85% 305 of 359
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStechly2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStechlyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTkaczyk87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stechly2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Stechly2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S3Stechly5Tkaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Stechly3Tkaczyk4n = 7Tkaczyk took 4 of 7
S5Stechly1Tkaczyk2n = 3Tkaczyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStechlyTkaczykS − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.939.8−7.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStechlyTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 529 vs 1003 / 150116.6%66.8%88 / 529 vs 1003 / 1501Avg sets wonper match1.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match33.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykStechly 5.70/Tkaczyk 1.09
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.3%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 24:45W. Stechly45911101142H. Tkaczyk43116123113
LAug 7 · 24:30W. Stechly25311381H. Tkaczyk3911611113
WJul 30 · 24:45W. Stechly42631111113H. Tkaczyk4311118672
WJul 24 · 03:30W. Stechly4211711133H. Tkaczyk399118111
LJul 23 · 24:45W. Stechly185760H. Tkaczyk331111113
LJul 16 · 24:45W. Stechly4611912862H. Tkaczyk518111011113
LJul 8 · 23:55W. Stechly34591191H. Tkaczyk4111118113
LJul 6 · 03:35W. Stechly32861171H. Tkaczyk4211119113
LJul 2 · 24:45W. Stechly1918100H. Tkaczyk341111123
LJun 26 · 05:05W. Stechly166640H. Tkaczyk331111113
W. Stechly10
WSep 14 · 05:30W. Stechly1.8211119123T. Przebierala1.859811101LSep 14 · 03:10W. Stechly3.40112281M. Wolny1.2491111113LSep 11 · 05:05W. Stechly2.907780M. Machelski1.321111113WSep 11 · 03:30W. Stechly4.0551117113J. Michalik1.181191581LSep 11 · 02:20W. Stechly7.102490M. Guzik1.041111113LSep 11 · 24:45W. Stechly4.18911101142H. Tkaczyk1.19116123113LSep 10 · 23:30W. Stechly4.706840J. Zelezik1.131111113LSep 10 · 04:00W. Stechly4.0811411782M. Warzecha1.20511511113WSep 10 · 03:00W. Stechly5.0581111113Z. Nocun1.11117591LSep 10 · 01:55W. Stechly4.20211571J. Skorupa1.1611811113
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 14 · 05:10T. Kordaszewski8.004660H. Tkaczyk1.031111113WSep 14 · 03:30D. Maszczynski5.004370H. Tkaczyk1.111111113LSep 11 · 04:20H. Tkaczyk1.438980J. Michalik2.501111113WSep 11 · 03:05H. Tkaczyk1.859111111113M. Guzik1.8011913792WSep 11 · 01:55H. Tkaczyk1.561111113J. Zelezik2.197980WSep 11 · 24:45W. Stechly4.18911101142H. Tkaczyk1.19116123113WSep 10 · 23:55H. Tkaczyk1.2511111211113M. Machelski3.4513814632LSep 10 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk2.205840D. Molenda1.571111113WSep 10 · 21:05H. Tkaczyk1.90131169113M. Guzik1.80115111182WSep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk1.5510111111113J. Zelezik2.1912137552
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