TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12305645
Played Jul 27Finished
Pawel Chojnacki
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012611811––––
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Chojnacki to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Chojnacki above · Kacper Kwiatkowski below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 58 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Pawel Chojnacki at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Chojnacki 3–4 Kacper Kwiatkowski Pawel Chojnacki has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:07What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chojnacki 1263 vs Kwiatkowski 1302
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chojnacki 60% vs Kwiatkowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chojnacki 40% vs Kwiatkowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chojnacki -1 · Kwiatkowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chojnacki form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChojnacki 2.10 / Kwiatkowski 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #12305645
Chojnacki2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 110 of 366
Down 0–1, comes back15% 35 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 150
Kwiatkowski1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite33% won 4 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it60% 3 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeChojnacki3wins
AwayKwiatkowski4wins
6 of 7 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 4–3, and 6 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChojnacki60%3 of 5
AwayKwiatkowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chojnacki5Kwiatkowski2n = 7Chojnacki took 5 of 7
S2Chojnacki2Kwiatkowski5n = 7Kwiatkowski took 5 of 7
S3Chojnacki3Kwiatkowski4n = 7Kwiatkowski took 4 of 7
S4Chojnacki5Kwiatkowski2n = 7Chojnacki took 5 of 7
S5Chojnacki2Kwiatkowski4n = 6Kwiatkowski took 4 of 6
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away457%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricChojnackiKwiatkowskiC − KBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match46.447.1−0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChojnackiKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime311 / 817 vs 30 / 10338.1%29.1%311 / 817 vs 30 / 103Avg sets wonper match1.71.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.835.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiChojnacki 2.10/Kwiatkowski 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 26 · 16:35P. Chojnacki49101191272K. Kwiatkowski531291110113
WJul 24 · 02:10P. Chojnacki4011711113K. Kwiatkowski34911681
LJul 23 · 20:05P. Chojnacki48117911102K. Kwiatkowski50811118123
LJul 23 · 01:25P. Chojnacki4311811492K. Kwiatkowski51911911113
WJul 22 · 19:20P. Chojnacki50117912113K. Kwiatkowski45511111082
WJul 14 · 24:10P. Chojnacki49127127113K. Kwiatkowski491011101172
LJul 13 · 20:30P. Chojnacki4691261182K. Kwiatkowski481110115113
P. Chojnacki10
LJul 28 · 02:10P. Chojnacki2.7511560A. Kubiak1.401311113LJul 28 · 24:50P. Chojnacki4.50511531M. Guzik1.1711811113LJul 27 · 23:45P. Chojnacki3.4051040M. Krutak1.301112113LJul 27 · 22:10P. Chojnacki1.9147100J. Michalik1.801111123WJul 27 · 21:00P. Chojnacki1.831111113K. Kwiatkowski1.836920LJul 27 · 19:40A. Fomin1.33111110113P. Chojnacki3.25461281LJul 27 · 18:55M. Guzik1.1781111113P. Chojnacki4.50114461WJul 27 · 18:10P. Chojnacki3.00101213113A. Kubiak1.3612101171LJul 27 · 15:50M. Krutak1.44118711113P. Chojnacki2.6351111952WJul 27 · 02:35P. Chojnacki3.0011415113H. Tkaczyk1.369111391
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771WAug 25 · 19:10D. Molenda1.30551121K. Kwiatkowski3.1511116113LJul 27 · 21:00P. Chojnacki1.831111113K. Kwiatkowski1.836920
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