TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12305816
Played Jul 28Finished
Pawel Chojnacki
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113511611––––
Artur Kubiak
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:56 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeArtur Kubiak to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Chojnacki above · Artur Kubiak below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Artur Kubiak at 63.5%
57 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Chojnacki 9–20 Artur Kubiak Pawel Chojnacki has won 9 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:56What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kubiak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-20 in 29
Kubiak
Correct
gap of 11 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chojnacki 1244 vs Kubiak 1471
Kubiak
Correct
both rated, 227 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chojnacki 20% vs Kubiak 80%
Kubiak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chojnacki 30% vs Kubiak 50%
Kubiak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chojnacki -3 · Kubiak +1
Chojnacki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kubiak) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chojnacki form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChojnacki 2.75 / Kubiak 1.40
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Kubiak)+11.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12305816
Chojnacki2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 110 of 366
Down 0–1, comes back15% 35 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 150
Kubiak1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 161 of 238
Up 2–0, closes it93% 85 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it85% 116 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChojnacki3wins
AwayKubiak7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKubiak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChojnacki33.3%2 of 6
AwayKubiak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chojnacki6Kubiak4n = 10Chojnacki took 6 of 10
S2Chojnacki2Kubiak8n = 10Kubiak took 8 of 10
S3Chojnacki2Kubiak8n = 10Kubiak took 8 of 10
S4Chojnacki5Kubiak4n = 9Chojnacki took 5 of 9
S5Chojnacki2Kubiak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChojnackiKubiakC − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.042.9−3.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChojnackiKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 825 vs 559 / 95937.9%58.3%313 / 825 vs 559 / 959Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakChojnacki 2.75/Kubiak 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.3%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 27 · 18:10P. Chojnacki46101213113A. Kubiak4012101171
LJun 29 · 01:25P. Chojnacki185940A. Kubiak331111113
LJun 28 · 19:20P. Chojnacki4212691142A. Kubiak451011112113
WJun 22 · 22:10P. Chojnacki5513101011113A. Kubiak48111212852
LJun 22 · 19:40P. Chojnacki49712811112A. Kubiak531110118133
LJun 21 · 21:00P. Chojnacki33114991A. Kubiak4071111113
LJun 21 · 16:35P. Chojnacki35118791A. Kubiak4181111113
LJun 16 · 24:35P. Chojnacki32671181A. Kubiak4111118113
LJun 15 · 18:30P. Chojnacki25111761A. Kubiak4071111113
WMay 1 · 21:35P. Chojnacki551191311113A. Kubiak4891115582
P. Chojnacki10
LJul 28 · 24:50P. Chojnacki4.50511531M. Guzik1.1711811113LJul 27 · 23:45P. Chojnacki3.4051040M. Krutak1.301112113LJul 27 · 22:10P. Chojnacki1.9147100J. Michalik1.801111123WJul 27 · 21:00P. Chojnacki1.831111113K. Kwiatkowski1.836920LJul 27 · 19:40A. Fomin1.33111110113P. Chojnacki3.25461281LJul 27 · 18:55M. Guzik1.1781111113P. Chojnacki4.50114461WJul 27 · 18:10P. Chojnacki3.00101213113A. Kubiak1.3612101171LJul 27 · 16:35P. Chojnacki2.1010680K. Kwiatkowski1.671211113LJul 27 · 15:50M. Krutak1.44118711113P. Chojnacki2.6351111952WJul 27 · 02:35P. Chojnacki3.0011415113H. Tkaczyk1.369111391
A. Kubiak10
WSep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.501499101A. Kubiak1.50121111123LSep 14 · 01:25A. Kubiak2.101460G. Mucha1.671111113LSep 14 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2561111113A. Kubiak3.75118831WSep 13 · 22:55K. Rybak6.008750A. Kubiak1.111111113WSep 13 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.731112951A. Kubiak2.00131011113LSep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.441311113A. Kubiak2.6311880WSep 13 · 19:20A. Kubiak2.0011812113G. Mucha1.739111091LSep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.3811815113A. Kubiak1.536111351WSep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00119971A. Kubiak1.1161111113LJul 27 · 18:10P. Chojnacki3.00101213113A. Kubiak1.3612101171
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