TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12305827
Played Jul 27Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811114114116––
Pawel Chojnacki
Away
4.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Pawel Chojnacki below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 66 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Michal Guzik at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 4–0 Pawel Chojnacki Pawel Chojnacki has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:58What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Guzik
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1529 vs Chojnacki 1269
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 260 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 60% vs Chojnacki 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 60% vs Chojnacki 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik -1 · Chojnacki +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chojnacki form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.17 / Chojnacki 4.50
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Guzik)+7.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12305827
Guzik1.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 27 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it84% 21 of 25
Chojnacki4.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 110 of 366
Down 0–1, comes back15% 35 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGuzik4wins
AwayChojnacki0wins
Guzik leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzik100%4 of 4
AwayChojnackin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik4Chojnacki0n = 4Guzik took 4 of 4
S2Guzik4Chojnacki0n = 4Guzik took 4 of 4
S3Guzik3Chojnacki1n = 4Guzik took 3 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home375%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricGuzikChojnackiG − CBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match35.522.5+13.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikChojnackiBasisWin rate · lifetime35 / 53 vs 312 / 81966%38.1%35 / 53 vs 312 / 819Avg sets wonper match2.41.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.17/Chojnacki 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.4%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 23 · 23:45M. Guzik331111113P. Chojnacki219570
WJul 23 · 15:50M. Guzik371114123P. Chojnacki25312100
WJul 19 · 21:00M. Guzik331111113P. Chojnacki155730
WJul 19 · 16:35M. Guzik3911116113P. Chojnacki29471171
M. Guzik10
LSep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.38911911113M. Guzik1.5311811962LSep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50141475113M. Guzik1.281212111172WSep 14 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2561111113A. Kubiak3.75118831WSep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336460WSep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak7.5011181192M. Guzik1.07118118113WSep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.441311113A. Kubiak2.6311880WSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451WSep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik1.057111311113K. Rybak8.5011815482LSep 13 · 16:15M. Guzik1.571061271M. Lewczuk2.25121110113WSep 13 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.006780
P. Chojnacki10
LJul 28 · 02:10P. Chojnacki2.7511560A. Kubiak1.401311113LJul 28 · 24:50P. Chojnacki4.50511531M. Guzik1.1711811113LJul 27 · 23:45P. Chojnacki3.4051040M. Krutak1.301112113LJul 27 · 22:10P. Chojnacki1.9147100J. Michalik1.801111123WJul 27 · 21:00P. Chojnacki1.831111113K. Kwiatkowski1.836920LJul 27 · 19:40A. Fomin1.33111110113P. Chojnacki3.25461281WJul 27 · 18:10P. Chojnacki3.00101213113A. Kubiak1.3612101171LJul 27 · 16:35P. Chojnacki2.1010680K. Kwiatkowski1.671211113LJul 27 · 15:50M. Krutak1.44118711113P. Chojnacki2.6351111952WJul 27 · 02:35P. Chojnacki3.0011415113H. Tkaczyk1.369111391
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.