TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12305818
Played Jul 28Finished
Pawel Chojnacki
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511118511311––
Michal Guzik
Away
1.17
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Chojnacki above · Michal Guzik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 65 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Michal Guzik at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Chojnacki 0–5 Michal Guzik Pawel Chojnacki has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:56What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Guzik
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chojnacki 1252 vs Guzik 1549
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 297 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chojnacki 20% vs Guzik 80%
Guzik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chojnacki 40% vs Guzik 70%
Guzik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chojnacki -2 · Guzik +3
Guzik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 90% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChojnacki 4.50 / Guzik 1.17
Signal prob.10% / 90%
Edge (Guzik)+11.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12305818
Chojnacki4.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 110 of 366
Down 0–1, comes back15% 35 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 150
Guzik1.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 27 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it84% 21 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeChojnacki0wins
AwayGuzik5wins
Guzik leads 5–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChojnackin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayGuzik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chojnacki1Guzik4n = 5Guzik took 4 of 5
S2Chojnacki0Guzik5n = 5Guzik took 5 of 5
S3Chojnacki1Guzik4n = 5Guzik took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away360%
These 5 meetings
MetricChojnackiGuzikC − GBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match23.036.6−13.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChojnackiGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 824 vs 39 / 5838%67.2%313 / 824 vs 39 / 58Avg sets wonper match1.72.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikChojnacki 4.50/Guzik 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
90.4%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 27 · 18:55P. Chojnacki25114461M. Guzik4181111113
LJul 23 · 23:45P. Chojnacki219570M. Guzik331111113
LJul 23 · 15:50P. Chojnacki25312100M. Guzik371114123
LJul 19 · 21:00P. Chojnacki155730M. Guzik331111113
LJul 19 · 16:35P. Chojnacki29471171M. Guzik3911116113
P. Chojnacki10
LJul 28 · 02:10P. Chojnacki2.7511560A. Kubiak1.401311113LJul 27 · 23:45P. Chojnacki3.4051040M. Krutak1.301112113LJul 27 · 22:10P. Chojnacki1.9147100J. Michalik1.801111123WJul 27 · 21:00P. Chojnacki1.831111113K. Kwiatkowski1.836920LJul 27 · 19:40A. Fomin1.33111110113P. Chojnacki3.25461281LJul 27 · 18:55M. Guzik1.1781111113P. Chojnacki4.50114461WJul 27 · 18:10P. Chojnacki3.00101213113A. Kubiak1.3612101171LJul 27 · 16:35P. Chojnacki2.1010680K. Kwiatkowski1.671211113LJul 27 · 15:50M. Krutak1.44118711113P. Chojnacki2.6351111952WJul 27 · 02:35P. Chojnacki3.0011415113H. Tkaczyk1.369111391
M. Guzik10
LSep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.38911911113M. Guzik1.5311811962LSep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50141475113M. Guzik1.281212111172WSep 14 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2561111113A. Kubiak3.75118831WSep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336460WSep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak7.5011181192M. Guzik1.07118118113WSep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.441311113A. Kubiak2.6311880WSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451WSep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik1.057111311113K. Rybak8.5011815482LSep 13 · 16:15M. Guzik1.571061271M. Lewczuk2.25121110113WJul 27 · 18:55M. Guzik1.1781111113P. Chojnacki4.50114461
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