TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12305829
Played Jul 27Finished
Pawel Chojnacki
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
101212101311117––
Artur Kubiak
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:58 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeArtur Kubiak to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Chojnacki above · Artur Kubiak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 86 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Artur Kubiak at 63.5%
86 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Chojnacki 8–20 Artur Kubiak Pawel Chojnacki has won 8 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:58What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kubiak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-20 in 28
Kubiak
Wrong
gap of 12 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chojnacki 1250 vs Kubiak 1465
Kubiak
Wrong
both rated, 215 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chojnacki 40% vs Kubiak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chojnacki 40% vs Kubiak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chojnacki -2 · Kubiak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Kubiak) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChojnacki 3.00 / Kubiak 1.36
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Kubiak)+11.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12305829
Chojnacki3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 110 of 366
Down 0–1, comes back15% 35 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 150
Kubiak1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 161 of 238
Up 2–0, closes it93% 85 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it85% 116 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChojnacki2wins
AwayKubiak8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKubiak leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChojnacki33.3%2 of 6
AwayKubiak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chojnacki6Kubiak4n = 10Chojnacki took 6 of 10
S2Chojnacki1Kubiak9n = 10Kubiak took 9 of 10
S3Chojnacki1Kubiak9n = 10Kubiak took 9 of 10
S4Chojnacki4Kubiak4n = 8split evenly
S5Chojnacki2Kubiak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChojnackiKubiakC − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.042.5−5.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChojnackiKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime311 / 818 vs 555 / 95238%58.3%311 / 818 vs 555 / 952Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakChojnacki 3.00/Kubiak 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.8%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chojnacki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 29 · 01:25P. Chojnacki185940A. Kubiak331111113
LJun 28 · 19:20P. Chojnacki4212691142A. Kubiak451011112113
WJun 22 · 22:10P. Chojnacki5513101011113A. Kubiak48111212852
LJun 22 · 19:40P. Chojnacki49712811112A. Kubiak531110118133
LJun 21 · 21:00P. Chojnacki33114991A. Kubiak4071111113
LJun 21 · 16:35P. Chojnacki35118791A. Kubiak4181111113
LJun 16 · 24:35P. Chojnacki32671181A. Kubiak4111118113
LJun 15 · 18:30P. Chojnacki25111761A. Kubiak4071111113
WMay 1 · 21:35P. Chojnacki551191311113A. Kubiak4891115582
LMay 1 · 15:35P. Chojnacki2612590A. Kubiak361411113
P. Chojnacki10
LJul 28 · 02:10P. Chojnacki2.7511560A. Kubiak1.401311113LJul 28 · 24:50P. Chojnacki4.50511531M. Guzik1.1711811113LJul 27 · 23:45P. Chojnacki3.4051040M. Krutak1.301112113LJul 27 · 22:10P. Chojnacki1.9147100J. Michalik1.801111123WJul 27 · 21:00P. Chojnacki1.831111113K. Kwiatkowski1.836920LJul 27 · 19:40A. Fomin1.33111110113P. Chojnacki3.25461281LJul 27 · 18:55M. Guzik1.1781111113P. Chojnacki4.50114461LJul 27 · 16:35P. Chojnacki2.1010680K. Kwiatkowski1.671211113LJul 27 · 15:50M. Krutak1.44118711113P. Chojnacki2.6351111952WJul 27 · 02:35P. Chojnacki3.0011415113H. Tkaczyk1.369111391
A. Kubiak10
WSep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.501499101A. Kubiak1.50121111123LSep 14 · 01:25A. Kubiak2.101460G. Mucha1.671111113LSep 14 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2561111113A. Kubiak3.75118831WSep 13 · 22:55K. Rybak6.008750A. Kubiak1.111111113WSep 13 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.731112951A. Kubiak2.00131011113LSep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.441311113A. Kubiak2.6311880WSep 13 · 19:20A. Kubiak2.0011812113G. Mucha1.739111091LSep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.3811815113A. Kubiak1.536111351WSep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00119971A. Kubiak1.1161111113WJul 28 · 02:10P. Chojnacki2.7511560A. Kubiak1.401311113
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