TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12305825
Played Jul 27Finished
Andriej Fomin
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141161012118––
Pawel Chojnacki
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:58 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndriej Fomin above · Pawel Chojnacki below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Andriej Fomin at 58.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H Andriej Fomin 15–7 Pawel Chojnacki Pawel Chojnacki has won 7 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-7 in 22
Fomin
Correct
gap of 8 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fomin 1430 vs Chojnacki 1265
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fomin 40% vs Chojnacki 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fomin 40% vs Chojnacki 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fomin -3 · Chojnacki -1
Fomin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Fomin) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFomin 1.33 / Chojnacki 3.25
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Fomin)+10.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12305825
Fomin1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 226 of 313
Up 2–0, closes it97% 128 of 132
Up 1–0, closes it91% 181 of 199
Chojnacki3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 110 of 366
Down 0–1, comes back15% 35 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFomin5wins
AwayChojnacki5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFomin60%3 of 5
AwayChojnacki60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fomin5Chojnacki5n = 10split evenly
S2Fomin7Chojnacki3n = 10Fomin took 7 of 10
S3Fomin5Chojnacki5n = 10split evenly
S4Fomin4Chojnacki4n = 8split evenly
S5Fomin1Chojnacki3n = 4Chojnacki took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFominChojnackiF − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.738.3+2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFominChojnackiBasisWin rate · lifetime414 / 722 vs 312 / 82057.3%38.1%414 / 722 vs 312 / 820Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.735.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominFomin 1.33/Chojnacki 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.9%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 25 · 22:35A. Fomin49711136122P. Chojnacki541171111143
LJul 25 · 15:00A. Fomin501111116112P. Chojnacki54981311133
WJul 23 · 02:35A. Fomin47611118113P. Chojnacki4011931162
LJul 22 · 18:10A. Fomin228680P. Chojnacki331111113
LJul 20 · 01:00A. Fomin45115811102P. Chojnacki52911119123
WJul 19 · 18:55A. Fomin4011711113P. Chojnacki23411351
WJul 9 · 02:35A. Fomin331111113P. Chojnacki186660
WJul 8 · 18:10A. Fomin3961111113P. Chojnacki31116771
WMay 31 · 01:10A. Fomin4211118123P. Chojnacki328311101
LMay 30 · 19:10A. Fomin407118141P. Chojnacki4611811163
A. Fomin10
WSep 13 · 02:45M. Wolny2.056760A. Fomin1.651111113WSep 13 · 01:35A. Fomin1.83101112113O. Jedrzejowski1.831251091WSep 13 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.6271161182A. Fomin2.07118117113LSep 12 · 23:10A. Zmijewski1.83111111113A. Fomin1.86581391WSep 12 · 21:35K. Malcher2.753114141A. Fomin1.4011911163LSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.6211713123A. Fomin2.0791111101WSep 12 · 19:35A. Fomin1.85971111113O. Jedrzejowski1.8511118572WSep 12 · 18:25M. Wolny2.25911631A. Fomin1.5711811113LSep 12 · 17:10A. Zmijewski1.83912912113A. Fomin1.861110111052WSep 12 · 15:35K. Malcher2.801111610102A. Fomin1.34551112123
P. Chojnacki10
LJul 28 · 02:10P. Chojnacki2.7511560A. Kubiak1.401311113LJul 28 · 24:50P. Chojnacki4.50511531M. Guzik1.1711811113LJul 27 · 23:45P. Chojnacki3.4051040M. Krutak1.301112113LJul 27 · 22:10P. Chojnacki1.9147100J. Michalik1.801111123WJul 27 · 21:00P. Chojnacki1.831111113K. Kwiatkowski1.836920LJul 27 · 18:55M. Guzik1.1781111113P. Chojnacki4.50114461WJul 27 · 18:10P. Chojnacki3.00101213113A. Kubiak1.3612101171LJul 27 · 16:35P. Chojnacki2.1010680K. Kwiatkowski1.671211113LJul 27 · 15:50M. Krutak1.44118711113P. Chojnacki2.6351111952WJul 27 · 02:35P. Chojnacki3.0011415113H. Tkaczyk1.369111391
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