TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12305037
Played Jul 27Finished
Michal Krutak
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115811711119115
Pawel Chojnacki
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:16 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Krutak to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Krutak above · Pawel Chojnacki below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 89 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Michal Krutak at 64.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Michal Krutak 10–4 Pawel Chojnacki Pawel Chojnacki has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:16What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Krutak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-4 in 14
Krutak
Correct
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krutak 1563 vs Chojnacki 1267
Krutak
Correct
both rated, 296 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krutak 60% vs Chojnacki 80%
Chojnacki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krutak 70% vs Chojnacki 40%
Krutak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krutak -1 · Chojnacki +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Krutak) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chojnacki form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrutak 1.44 / Chojnacki 2.63
Signal prob.76% / 25%
Edge (Krutak)+11.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12305037
Krutak1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 104 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 62 of 75
Chojnacki2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 110 of 366
Down 0–1, comes back15% 35 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrutak7wins
AwayChojnacki3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKrutak leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrutak100%5 of 5
AwayChojnacki60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krutak5Chojnacki5n = 10split evenly
S2Krutak3Chojnacki7n = 10Chojnacki took 7 of 10
S3Krutak7Chojnacki3n = 10Krutak took 7 of 10
S4Krutak4Chojnacki6n = 10Chojnacki took 6 of 10
S5Krutak5Chojnacki0n = 5Krutak took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrutakChojnackiK − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.343.4+1.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrutakChojnackiBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 238 vs 311 / 81663%38.1%150 / 238 vs 311 / 816Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match40.635.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrutakKrutak 1.44/Chojnacki 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.5%
Krutak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krutak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 2 · 23:20M. Krutak29851151P. Chojnacki3711114113
WJul 2 · 17:20M. Krutak48119611113P. Chojnacki4171111392
WJun 16 · 02:10M. Krutak43101111113P. Chojnacki29127461
WJun 15 · 20:05M. Krutak571115119113P. Chojnacki5061781182
WMay 15 · 01:30M. Krutak571011136173P. Chojnacki581291111152
WMay 14 · 19:30M. Krutak48118513113P. Chojnacki50911111182
LApr 17 · 04:20M. Krutak344111181P. Chojnacki4211713113
WApr 16 · 18:45M. Krutak46111212113P. Chojnacki409141071
LApr 11 · 23:35M. Krutak371081181P. Chojnacki4312119113
WApr 11 · 17:35M. Krutak541111129113P. Chojnacki44613101142
M. Krutak10
LSep 8 · 01:30M. Krutak1.836850J. Skorupa1.831111113WSep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.0091080M. Krutak1.731112113WSep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik1.838760M. Krutak1.831111113WSep 7 · 22:50M. Krutak2.501111113H. Tkaczyk1.504580WSep 7 · 21:45M. Krutak1.7311179113A. Kubiak2.009151151WSep 7 · 20:05M. Krutak1.8311811113J. Skorupa1.83511381WSep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.2091111932M. Krutak1.61117811113WSep 7 · 17:45A. Kubiak2.101091161M. Krutak1.6712118113WSep 7 · 16:55M. Krutak2.631411116113H. Tkaczyk1.44127131192LSep 7 · 15:50M. Krutak1.8381110101J. Zelezik1.8311812123
P. Chojnacki10
LJul 28 · 02:10P. Chojnacki2.7511560A. Kubiak1.401311113LJul 28 · 24:50P. Chojnacki4.50511531M. Guzik1.1711811113LJul 27 · 23:45P. Chojnacki3.4051040M. Krutak1.301112113LJul 27 · 22:10P. Chojnacki1.9147100J. Michalik1.801111123WJul 27 · 21:00P. Chojnacki1.831111113K. Kwiatkowski1.836920LJul 27 · 19:40A. Fomin1.33111110113P. Chojnacki3.25461281LJul 27 · 18:55M. Guzik1.1781111113P. Chojnacki4.50114461WJul 27 · 18:10P. Chojnacki3.00101213113A. Kubiak1.3612101171LJul 27 · 16:35P. Chojnacki2.1010680K. Kwiatkowski1.671211113WJul 27 · 02:35P. Chojnacki3.0011415113H. Tkaczyk1.369111391
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