TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12305641
Played Jul 27Finished
Pawel Chojnacki
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119112––––
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Chojnacki to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Chojnacki above · Kacper Kwiatkowski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 50 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Pawel Chojnacki at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Chojnacki 4–5 Kacper Kwiatkowski Pawel Chojnacki has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:07What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chojnacki 1258 vs Kwiatkowski 1347
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chojnacki 20% vs Kwiatkowski 60%
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chojnacki 50% vs Kwiatkowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chojnacki -2 · Kwiatkowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chojnacki form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChojnacki 1.83 / Kwiatkowski 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12305641
Chojnacki1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Kwiatkowski1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeChojnacki4wins
AwayKwiatkowski5wins
6 of 9 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 5–4, and 6 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChojnacki66.7%4 of 6
AwayKwiatkowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chojnacki6Kwiatkowski3n = 9Chojnacki took 6 of 9
S2Chojnacki3Kwiatkowski6n = 9Kwiatkowski took 6 of 9
S3Chojnacki3Kwiatkowski6n = 9Kwiatkowski took 6 of 9
S4Chojnacki6Kwiatkowski2n = 8Chojnacki took 6 of 8
S5Chojnacki2Kwiatkowski4n = 6Kwiatkowski took 4 of 6
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away444%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricChojnackiKwiatkowskiC − KBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match43.744.2−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChojnackiKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime312 / 821 vs 33 / 10738%30.8%312 / 821 vs 33 / 107Avg sets wonper match1.71.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.835.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiChojnacki 1.83/Kwiatkowski 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chojnacki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJul 27 · 16:35P. Chojnacki2410680K. Kwiatkowski341211113
WJul 26 · 21:00P. Chojnacki4411119133K. Kwiatkowski346611111
LJul 26 · 16:35P. Chojnacki49101191272K. Kwiatkowski531291110113
WJul 24 · 02:10P. Chojnacki4011711113K. Kwiatkowski34911681
LJul 23 · 20:05P. Chojnacki48117911102K. Kwiatkowski50811118123
LJul 23 · 01:25P. Chojnacki4311811492K. Kwiatkowski51911911113
WJul 22 · 19:20P. Chojnacki50117912113K. Kwiatkowski45511111082
WJul 14 · 24:10P. Chojnacki49127127113K. Kwiatkowski491011101172
LJul 13 · 20:30P. Chojnacki4691261182K. Kwiatkowski481110115113
P. Chojnacki10
LJul 28 · 02:10P. Chojnacki2.7511560A. Kubiak1.401311113LJul 28 · 24:50P. Chojnacki4.50511531M. Guzik1.1711811113LJul 27 · 23:45P. Chojnacki3.4051040M. Krutak1.301112113LJul 27 · 22:10P. Chojnacki1.9147100J. Michalik1.801111123LJul 27 · 19:40A. Fomin1.33111110113P. Chojnacki3.25461281LJul 27 · 18:55M. Guzik1.1781111113P. Chojnacki4.50114461WJul 27 · 18:10P. Chojnacki3.00101213113A. Kubiak1.3612101171LJul 27 · 16:35P. Chojnacki2.1010680K. Kwiatkowski1.671211113LJul 27 · 15:50M. Krutak1.44118711113P. Chojnacki2.6351111952WJul 27 · 02:35P. Chojnacki3.0011415113H. Tkaczyk1.369111391
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771WAug 25 · 19:10D. Molenda1.30551121K. Kwiatkowski3.1511116113WJul 27 · 16:35P. Chojnacki2.1010680K. Kwiatkowski1.671211113
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