TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Hel vs Orest Melnik 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Valerii Hel
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116114––––
Orest Melnik
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:01 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeValerii Hel to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Hel above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 52 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Valerii Hel at 59.3%
52 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Hel 10–6 Orest Melnik Orest Melnik has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:01What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Hel
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hel 1257 vs Melnik 1268
Melnik
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hel 40% vs Melnik 60%
Melnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hel 40% vs Melnik 60%
Melnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hel +1 · Melnik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hel) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHel 1.57 / Melnik 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Hel)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13172973
Hel1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 56 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it73% 40 of 55
Melnik2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 38 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back15% 13 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHel6wins
AwayMelnik4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHel leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHel75%6 of 8
AwayMelnikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hel8Melnik2n = 10Hel took 8 of 10
S2Hel3Melnik7n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S3Hel5Melnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Hel4Melnik4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHelMelnikH − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.737.0+0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHelMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 233 vs 169 / 36455.4%46.4%129 / 233 vs 169 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.735.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HelHel 1.57/Melnik 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 12:55V. Hel351195101O. Melnik4281111123
WSep 16 · 05:25V. Hel331111113O. Melnik187380
WSep 15 · 15:55V. Hel3811411123O. Melnik325116101
WAug 5 · 05:25V. Hel49117146113O. Melnik42611121122
WAug 4 · 13:55V. Hel4411157113O. Melnik407131191
LJul 29 · 05:25V. Hel351171161O. Melnik4381113113
WJul 21 · 13:55V. Hel4811917113O. Melnik438111591
LJul 15 · 07:25V. Hel35712971O. Melnik43111011113
WJul 9 · 07:55V. Hel4211911113O. Melnik34811961
LJun 10 · 10:55V. Hel189270O. Melnik331111113
V. Hel10
WSep 22 · 14:55V. Hel2.50811115113K. Tkachenko1.5011691162LSep 22 · 13:25V. Hel2.388111161D. Kozoriz1.5311138113LSep 22 · 11:55V. Hel1.9171161372D. Kasian1.801181111113WSep 21 · 10:35V. Salivonchyk2.757101191V. Hel1.4011124113LSep 21 · 09:35V. Hel1.28111111972O. Maslovskyi3.50139611113LSep 21 · 08:35V. Hel1.8381111622S. Kryvoshyi1.83114711113WSep 21 · 07:05V. Hel1.531111113M. Vivatenko2.388770WSep 17 · 18:25V. Hel1.8311119113O. Maksymkiv1.83891161LSep 17 · 16:25M. Treschetka3.501113133V. Hel1.28711110LSep 17 · 15:25V. Hel1.501071161I. Fokin2.5012114113
O. Melnik10
WSep 22 · 15:25O. Melnik1.801211133D. Kozoriz1.91109110WSep 22 · 14:25S. Kryvoshyi1.3012911942O. Melnik3.401011611113LSep 22 · 12:55O. Melnik6.506690K. Tkachenko1.101111113WSep 17 · 18:55O. Melnik1.3011711113I. Fokin3.40911961LSep 17 · 16:55V. Kheresko2.00101411113O. Melnik1.731212421WSep 17 · 14:55M. Treschetka3.40117111272O. Melnik1.30711714113LSep 17 · 13:55O. Melnik1.30159110O. Maksymkiv3.401711133WSep 17 · 12:55V. Hel1.441195101O. Melnik2.6381111123WSep 16 · 10:55O. Melnik2.5081211143D. Kasian1.5011104121LSep 16 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.30911119113O. Melnik3.4011251192
Upcoming Matches
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