TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Hel vs Kyrylo Tkachenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Valerii Hel
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811116119511116
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:01 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Hel above · Kyrylo Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 89 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 64.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Hel 4–6 Kyrylo Tkachenko Valerii Hel has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:01What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tkachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Tkachenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hel 1242 vs Tkachenko 1425
Tkachenko
Wrong
both rated, 183 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hel 20% vs Tkachenko 80%
Tkachenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hel 30% vs Tkachenko 80%
Tkachenko
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hel -2 · Tkachenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHel 2.50 / Tkachenko 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Tkachenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13172980
Hel2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 27 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Tkachenko1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite74% won 67 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it85% 52 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHel4wins
AwayTkachenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkachenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHel66.7%2 of 3
AwayTkachenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hel3Tkachenko7n = 10Tkachenko took 7 of 10
S2Hel5Tkachenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Hel4Tkachenko6n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S4Hel2Tkachenko4n = 6Tkachenko took 4 of 6
S5Hel2Tkachenko1n = 3Hel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHelTkachenkoH − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.238.2−2.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHelTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 232 vs 102 / 18055.2%56.7%128 / 232 vs 102 / 180Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoHel 2.50/Tkachenko 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 18:25V. Hel3831111762K. Tkachenko47116811113
LAug 6 · 14:25V. Hel37911891K. Tkachenko4111811113
WAug 4 · 18:25V. Hel52119138113K. Tkachenko45811111142
LJul 28 · 18:25V. Hel3116870K. Tkachenko401811113
WJul 21 · 18:25V. Hel4281211113K. Tkachenko371110971
WJun 23 · 18:25V. Hel496111011113K. Tkachenko4611812692
LJun 16 · 18:25V. Hel2248100K. Tkachenko341111123
WMay 5 · 18:25V. Hel331111113K. Tkachenko196670
LApr 28 · 17:55V. Hel36119791K. Tkachenko4071111113
LApr 2 · 14:25V. Hel228680K. Tkachenko331111113
V. Hel10
WSep 22 · 16:25V. Hel1.571111113O. Melnik2.259640LSep 22 · 13:25V. Hel2.388111161D. Kozoriz1.5311138113LSep 22 · 11:55V. Hel1.9171161372D. Kasian1.801181111113WSep 21 · 10:35V. Salivonchyk2.757101191V. Hel1.4011124113LSep 21 · 09:35V. Hel1.28111111972O. Maslovskyi3.50139611113LSep 21 · 08:35V. Hel1.8381111622S. Kryvoshyi1.83114711113WSep 21 · 07:05V. Hel1.531111113M. Vivatenko2.388770WSep 17 · 18:25V. Hel1.8311119113O. Maksymkiv1.83891161LSep 17 · 16:25M. Treschetka3.501113133V. Hel1.28711110LSep 17 · 15:25V. Hel1.501071161I. Fokin2.5012114113
K. Tkachenko10
LSep 22 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.91118116102D. Kasian1.80911511123WSep 22 · 12:55O. Melnik6.506690K. Tkachenko1.101111113WSep 15 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57116811113V. Hel2.2531111762WSep 15 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv3.4011911762K. Tkachenko1.30711811113WSep 15 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.441711113S. Kryvoshyi2.6315970WSep 15 · 14:25O. Melnik4.509490K. Tkachenko1.171111113LSep 15 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.61971191D. Kasian2.2011117113WSep 8 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.221111113V. Kheresko4.006790WSep 8 · 16:55D. Kozoriz1.679490K. Tkachenko2.101111113WSep 8 · 14:55D. Belanchik2.00841111K. Tkachenko1.7311117113
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