TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131142
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleh Maksymkiv
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117911118711611
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Kyrylo Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 75.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 2–9 Kyrylo Tkachenko Oleh Maksymkiv has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:00What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-9 in 11
Tkachenko
Correct
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1245 vs Tkachenko 1391
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 20% vs Tkachenko 80%
Tkachenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 50% vs Tkachenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv -2 · Tkachenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 3.40 / Tkachenko 1.30
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Tkachenko)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13131142
Maksymkiv3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 56 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Tkachenko1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 67 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it84% 51 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv2wins
AwayTkachenko8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTkachenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkiv0%0 of 3
AwayTkachenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv3Tkachenko7n = 10Tkachenko took 7 of 10
S2Maksymkiv2Tkachenko8n = 10Tkachenko took 8 of 10
S3Maksymkiv2Tkachenko8n = 10Tkachenko took 8 of 10
S4Maksymkiv4Tkachenko3n = 7Maksymkiv took 4 of 7
S5Maksymkiv2Tkachenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksymkivTkachenkoM − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.141.2−10.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime382 / 730 vs 99 / 17752.3%55.9%382 / 730 vs 99 / 177Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoMaksymkiv 3.40/Tkachenko 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.6%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 14 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv49811811113K. Tkachenko4311511882
LJul 7 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv153750K. Tkachenko331111113
LJun 30 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv35118971K. Tkachenko4181111113
LJun 23 · 12:55O. Maksymkiv3411631132K. Tkachenko50811119113
LJun 4 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv25431171K. Tkachenko3911116113
LMay 5 · 15:25O. Maksymkiv45115111442K. Tkachenko531311612113
LApr 12 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv124170K. Tkachenko331111113
LApr 9 · 15:55O. Maksymkiv22114431K. Tkachenko4291111113
WApr 2 · 16:55O. Maksymkiv49711911113K. Tkachenko4411911762
LMar 14 · 05:55O. Maksymkiv2510690K. Tkachenko341211113
O. Maksymkiv10
LSep 15 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv2.205650D. Kasian1.611111113LSep 15 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv2.508820S. Kryvoshyi1.501111113WSep 15 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv1.91471311113V. Hel1.80111111832LSep 9 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv3.75521171D. Kozoriz1.2511117113LSep 9 · 09:25D. Belanchik2.10121111123O. Maksymkiv1.671437101WSep 9 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.4411115492O. Maksymkiv2.63741111113WSep 9 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv2.6311115113A. Didyk1.44571151WSep 9 · 05:25V. Dobrovolskyi1.67149811102O. Maksymkiv2.101211119123LSep 7 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv1.80711481V. Salivonchyk1.9111911113WSep 7 · 08:55H. Oliynyk1.289880O. Maksymkiv3.501111113
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 15 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.441711113S. Kryvoshyi2.6315970WSep 15 · 14:25O. Melnik4.509490K. Tkachenko1.171111113LSep 15 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.61971191D. Kasian2.2011117113WSep 8 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.221111113V. Kheresko4.006790WSep 8 · 16:55D. Kozoriz1.679490K. Tkachenko2.101111113WSep 8 · 14:55D. Belanchik2.00841111K. Tkachenko1.7311117113LSep 8 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.40815371S. Kryvoshyi2.75111311113LSep 8 · 12:55V. Dobrovolskyi1.4021111113K. Tkachenko2.75117781WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870LSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520
Upcoming Matches
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