TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13099884
Played Sep 9Finished
Dmitriy Belanchik
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12141131171210––
Oleh Maksymkiv
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:38 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmitriy Belanchik above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 80 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 56.2%
80 points played in total.
H2H Dmitriy Belanchik 4–5 Oleh Maksymkiv Dmitriy Belanchik has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Maksymkiv
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Belanchik 1172 vs Maksymkiv 1282
Maksymkiv
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Belanchik 20% vs Maksymkiv 80%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Belanchik 30% vs Maksymkiv 70%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Belanchik -4 · Maksymkiv +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Maksymkiv)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBelanchik 2.10 / Maksymkiv 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Maksymkiv)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13099884
Belanchik2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 15 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back13% 3 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Maksymkiv1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 129 of 189
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it82% 90 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBelanchik4wins
AwayMaksymkiv5wins
1 of 9 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 5–4, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBelanchik66.7%2 of 3
AwayMaksymkiv66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Belanchik3Maksymkiv6n = 9Maksymkiv took 6 of 9
S2Belanchik5Maksymkiv4n = 9Belanchik took 5 of 9
S3Belanchik4Maksymkiv5n = 9Maksymkiv took 5 of 9
S4Belanchik4Maksymkiv3n = 7Belanchik took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricBelanchikMaksymkivB − MBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match35.735.6+0.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBelanchikMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 242 vs 381 / 72543.8%52.6%106 / 242 vs 381 / 725Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.237.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivBelanchik 2.10/Maksymkiv 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Belanchik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 28 · 08:25D. Belanchik—111311972O. Maksymkiv—915711113
LAug 27 · 13:55D. Belanchik—79120O. Maksymkiv—1111143
WAug 23 · 12:55D. Belanchik—11811113O. Maksymkiv—811431
LJul 30 · 04:55D. Belanchik—411381O. Maksymkiv—11611113
LJul 29 · 16:59D. Belanchik—65120O. Maksymkiv—1111143
WJul 29 · 12:25D. Belanchik—61111113O. Maksymkiv—119361
WJul 27 · 10:25D. Belanchik—71311113O. Maksymkiv—1111331
WJul 26 · 15:25D. Belanchik—12118113O. Maksymkiv—1061161
LJul 2 · 11:55D. Belanchik—511581O. Maksymkiv—11711113
D. Belanchik10
LSep 9 · 08:25D. Belanchik1.80761191A. Didyk1.9111111113LSep 9 · 06:55D. Belanchik2.5045100V. Dobrovolskyi1.501111123LSep 9 · 04:55D. Belanchik3.253540D. Kozoriz1.331111113LSep 8 · 17:55D. Belanchik3.008270D. Kozoriz1.361111113WSep 8 · 16:25D. Belanchik2.63115189113V. Dobrovolskyi1.44911161192LSep 8 · 14:55D. Belanchik2.00841111K. Tkachenko1.7311117113LSep 8 · 13:25D. Belanchik2.50107111162V. Kheresko1.50121157113WSep 8 · 11:55D. Belanchik2.101111113S. Kryvoshyi1.679990LAug 28 · 10:25M. Treschetka2.201112113D. Belanchik1.6141050WAug 28 · 09:25D. Belanchik1.44911125113O. Maslovskyi2.63115101172
O. Maksymkiv10
WSep 9 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.4411115492O. Maksymkiv2.63741111113WSep 9 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv2.6311115113A. Didyk1.44571151WSep 9 · 05:25V. Dobrovolskyi1.67149811102O. Maksymkiv2.101211119123LSep 7 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv1.80711481V. Salivonchyk1.9111911113WSep 7 · 08:55H. Oliynyk1.289880O. Maksymkiv3.501111113LSep 7 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv2.101021521S. Kryvoshyi1.67121113113WSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163
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