TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131186
Played Sep 15Finished
Orest Melnik
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911411911––––
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Away
1.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:11 and never touched — 85.6% is still 85.6%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
85.6%
85.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Kyrylo Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 85.6%
55 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 1–18 Kyrylo Tkachenko Orest Melnik has won 1 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:11What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-18 in 19
Tkachenko
Correct
gap of 17 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1243 vs Tkachenko 1372
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 40% vs Tkachenko 60%
Tkachenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 40% vs Tkachenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -1 · Tkachenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Tkachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 4.50 / Tkachenko 1.17
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Tkachenko)+6.2pp
Setka Cup · #13131186
Melnik4.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 37 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Tkachenko1.17
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 67 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it84% 51 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik0wins
AwayTkachenko10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkachenko leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnikn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayTkachenko100%10 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik0Tkachenko10n = 10Tkachenko took 10 of 10
S2Melnik4Tkachenko6n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S3Melnik1Tkachenko9n = 10Tkachenko took 9 of 10
S4Melnik2Tkachenko3n = 5Tkachenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikTkachenkoM − TBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match28.838.8−10.0per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 359 vs 97 / 17547.1%55.4%169 / 359 vs 97 / 175Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoMelnik 4.50/Tkachenko 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 12:55O. Melnik1810440K. Tkachenko341211113
LAug 18 · 12:55O. Melnik41101011101K. Tkachenko4512129123
LAug 11 · 12:55O. Melnik30611851K. Tkachenko4011711113
LAug 4 · 12:55O. Melnik156450K. Tkachenko331111113
LJul 28 · 12:55O. Melnik183780K. Tkachenko321111103
LJul 21 · 12:55O. Melnik383111591K. Tkachenko4711817113
LJul 14 · 12:55O. Melnik4151181162K. Tkachenko46118115113
LJul 7 · 12:55O. Melnik217770K. Tkachenko331111113
LJun 30 · 12:55O. Melnik3811181172K. Tkachenko43112118113
LJun 4 · 12:25O. Melnik2811890K. Tkachenko351311113
O. Melnik10
LSep 15 · 12:25O. Melnik3.25117641S. Kryvoshyi1.3381111113WSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113WSep 2 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv3.006540O. Melnik1.361111113LSep 1 · 18:55O. Melnik3.754590S. Kryvoshyi1.251111113LSep 1 · 16:55A. Didyk1.611161110113O. Melnik2.2081171262WSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113LSep 1 · 13:55O. Melnik1.6761070V. Kheresko2.101112113
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 15 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.441711113S. Kryvoshyi2.6315970LSep 15 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.61971191D. Kasian2.2011117113WSep 8 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.221111113V. Kheresko4.006790WSep 8 · 16:55D. Kozoriz1.679490K. Tkachenko2.101111113WSep 8 · 14:55D. Belanchik2.00841111K. Tkachenko1.7311117113LSep 8 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.40815371S. Kryvoshyi2.75111311113LSep 8 · 12:55V. Dobrovolskyi1.4021111113K. Tkachenko2.75117781WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870LSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.369111081S. Kryvoshyi3.0011512113
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