TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094692
Played Sep 8Finished
Denys Kozoriz
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911411911––––
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Kozoriz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Kozoriz above · Kyrylo Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Denys Kozoriz at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Denys Kozoriz 4–3 Kyrylo Tkachenko Kyrylo Tkachenko has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:49What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kozoriz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozoriz 1363 vs Tkachenko 1365
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozoriz 100% vs Tkachenko 40%
Kozoriz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozoriz 70% vs Tkachenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozoriz +5 · Tkachenko +1
Kozoriz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kozoriz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozoriz form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozoriz 1.67 / Tkachenko 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kozoriz)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094692
Kozoriz1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 54 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it80% 43 of 54
Tkachenko2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog22% won 7 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKozoriz4wins
AwayTkachenko3wins
1 of 7 to a deciderKozoriz leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozoriz100%3 of 3
AwayTkachenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozoriz3Tkachenko4n = 7Tkachenko took 4 of 7
S2Kozoriz3Tkachenko4n = 7Tkachenko took 4 of 7
S3Kozoriz5Tkachenko2n = 7Kozoriz took 5 of 7
S4Kozoriz4Tkachenko1n = 5Kozoriz took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKozorizTkachenkoK − TBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match35.332.1+3.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozorizTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 516 vs 95 / 17252.9%55.2%273 / 516 vs 95 / 172Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozorizKozoriz 1.67/Tkachenko 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Kozoriz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz—1111113K. Tkachenko—2520
WAug 11 · 18:55D. Kozoriz—11911113K. Tkachenko—911591
LMay 13 · 12:25D. Kozoriz—27110K. Tkachenko—1111133
WJul 31 · 14:55D. Kozoriz—81112113K. Tkachenko—1141061
WJul 17 · 18:25D. Kozoriz—11411113K. Tkachenko—211681
LMay 22 · 10:55D. Kozoriz—5111061K. Tkachenko—11812113
LApr 2 · 16:55D. Kozoriz—67111162K. Tkachenko—111195113
D. Kozoriz10
WSep 8 · 17:55D. Belanchik3.008270D. Kozoriz1.361111113WSep 8 · 15:55D. Kozoriz1.611112113S. Kryvoshyi2.2061030WSep 8 · 14:25D. Kozoriz3.751311113V. Dobrovolskyi1.2511570WSep 8 · 12:25D. Kozoriz1.301114113V. Kheresko3.4061280WSep 2 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv3.75113611D. Kozoriz1.2581111113WSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 08:25A. Didyk1.91471211113D. Kozoriz1.80111110882WSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.251111113D. Kozoriz1.576370LSep 1 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.73881181A. Didyk2.0011112113
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 8 · 14:55D. Belanchik2.00841111K. Tkachenko1.7311117113LSep 8 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.40815371S. Kryvoshyi2.75111311113LSep 8 · 12:55V. Dobrovolskyi1.4021111113K. Tkachenko2.75117781WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870LSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.369111081S. Kryvoshyi3.0011512113WSep 1 · 14:25A. Didyk2.20611121092K. Tkachenko1.611161012113WSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 18 · 18:25K. Tkachenko2.501211113M. Styranets1.5010970WAug 18 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi2.7516770K. Tkachenko1.401811113
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