TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131176
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleh Maksymkiv
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611511––––
Danylo Kasian
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:11 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeDanylo Kasian to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Danylo Kasian below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 49 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Danylo Kasian at 58.1%
49 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 3–4 Danylo Kasian Oleh Maksymkiv has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:11What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kasian
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1257 vs Kasian 1298
Kasian
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 40% vs Kasian 60%
Kasian
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 50% vs Kasian 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv -1 · Kasian -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kasian) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 2.20 / Kasian 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kasian)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13131176
Maksymkiv2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 56 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Kasian1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 13 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it50% 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv3wins
AwayKasian4wins
4 of 7 to a deciderKasian leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkiv50%3 of 6
AwayKasiann = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv6Kasian1n = 7Maksymkiv took 6 of 7
S2Maksymkiv3Kasian4n = 7Kasian took 4 of 7
S3Maksymkiv3Kasian4n = 7Kasian took 4 of 7
S4Maksymkiv1Kasian6n = 7Kasian took 6 of 7
S5Maksymkiv2Kasian2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMaksymkivKasianM − KBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match42.643.7−1.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivKasianBasisWin rate · lifetime382 / 729 vs 33 / 6052.4%55%382 / 729 vs 33 / 60Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasianMaksymkiv 2.20/Kasian 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Kasian · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kasian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 23 · 15:25O. Maksymkiv49111381072D. Kasian549111112113
WAug 17 · 09:25O. Maksymkiv4711119163D. Kasian334411141
LAug 14 · 04:55O. Maksymkiv4211511872D. Kasian49711911113
LAug 13 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv27511651D. Kasian4211911113
WAug 10 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv521110119113D. Kasian3631221182
WJul 30 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv52126158113D. Kasian541011131192
LJul 29 · 15:55O. Maksymkiv29112791D. Kasian3851111113
O. Maksymkiv10
LSep 15 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv2.508820S. Kryvoshyi1.501111113WSep 15 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv1.91471311113V. Hel1.80111111832LSep 9 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv3.75521171D. Kozoriz1.2511117113LSep 9 · 09:25D. Belanchik2.10121111123O. Maksymkiv1.671437101WSep 9 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.4411115492O. Maksymkiv2.63741111113WSep 9 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv2.6311115113A. Didyk1.44571151WSep 9 · 05:25V. Dobrovolskyi1.67149811102O. Maksymkiv2.101211119123LSep 7 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv1.80711481V. Salivonchyk1.9111911113WSep 7 · 08:55H. Oliynyk1.289880O. Maksymkiv3.501111113LSep 7 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv2.101021521S. Kryvoshyi1.67121113113
D. Kasian10
LSep 15 · 13:55D. Kasian2.1051180V. Hel1.671113113WSep 15 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.61971191D. Kasian2.2011117113WAug 25 · 18:25D. Kasian3.001011116123V. Kheresko1.36128811102WAug 25 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi1.83115116112D. Kasian1.83911811133LAug 25 · 15:25D. Kasian2.10813421D. Kozoriz1.67111111113WAug 25 · 14:25A. Didyk1.7310890D. Kasian2.001211113LAug 25 · 12:55D. Kasian2.0011811562D. Ponomarenko1.73611811113WAug 24 · 10:55M. Vivatenko2.251110361D. Kasian1.5791211113LAug 24 · 09:55V. Salivonchyk2.10101111123D. Kasian1.671285101WAug 24 · 08:25D. Belanchik2.257880D. Kasian1.571111113
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