TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Orest Melnik vs Kyrylo Tkachenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Orest Melnik
Home
6.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611911––––
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Away
1.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 85.6% is still 85.6%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
85.6%
85.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Kyrylo Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 85.6%
54 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 1–19 Kyrylo Tkachenko Orest Melnik has won 1 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:00What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-19 in 20
Tkachenko
Correct
gap of 18 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1241 vs Tkachenko 1431
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 190 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 60% vs Tkachenko 80%
Tkachenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 50% vs Tkachenko 70%
Tkachenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +1 · Tkachenko +4
Tkachenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 86% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (80%) is below what odds imply (91%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 6.50 / Tkachenko 1.10
Signal prob.11% / 89%
Edge (Tkachenko)+3.8pp
Setka Cup · #13172967
Melnik6.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 17)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 38 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back15% 13 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 53
Tkachenko1.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 15) · back after a break
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 67 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it85% 52 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik0wins
AwayTkachenko10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkachenko leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnikn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayTkachenko100%10 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik0Tkachenko10n = 10Tkachenko took 10 of 10
S2Melnik4Tkachenko6n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S3Melnik1Tkachenko8n = 9Tkachenko took 8 of 9
S4Melnik2Tkachenko3n = 5Tkachenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikTkachenkoM − TBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match29.339.3−10.0per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 364 vs 101 / 17946.7%56.4%170 / 364 vs 101 / 179Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoMelnik 6.50/Tkachenko 1.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89.3%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 15 · 14:25O. Melnik229490K. Tkachenko331111113
LSep 1 · 12:55O. Melnik1810440K. Tkachenko341211113
LAug 18 · 12:55O. Melnik41101011101K. Tkachenko4512129123
LAug 11 · 12:55O. Melnik30611851K. Tkachenko4011711113
LAug 4 · 12:55O. Melnik156450K. Tkachenko331111113
LJul 21 · 12:55O. Melnik383111591K. Tkachenko4711817113
LJul 14 · 12:55O. Melnik4151181162K. Tkachenko46118115113
LJul 7 · 12:55O. Melnik217770K. Tkachenko331111113
LJun 30 · 12:55O. Melnik3811181172K. Tkachenko43112118113
O. Melnik10
WSep 17 · 18:55O. Melnik1.3011711113I. Fokin3.40911961LSep 17 · 16:55V. Kheresko2.00101411113O. Melnik1.731212421WSep 17 · 14:55M. Treschetka3.40117111272O. Melnik1.30711714113LSep 17 · 13:55O. Melnik1.30159110O. Maksymkiv3.401711133WSep 17 · 12:55V. Hel1.441195101O. Melnik2.6381111123WSep 16 · 10:55O. Melnik2.5081211143D. Kasian1.5011104121LSep 16 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.30911119113O. Melnik3.4011251192WSep 16 · 07:55O. Melnik1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.753730LSep 16 · 06:55D. Belanchik2.2511811113O. Melnik1.57811691LSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 15 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57116811113V. Hel2.2531111762WSep 15 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv3.4011911762K. Tkachenko1.30711811113WSep 15 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.441711113S. Kryvoshyi2.6315970WSep 15 · 14:25O. Melnik4.509490K. Tkachenko1.171111113LSep 15 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.61971191D. Kasian2.2011117113WSep 8 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.221111113V. Kheresko4.006790WSep 8 · 16:55D. Kozoriz1.679490K. Tkachenko2.101111113WSep 8 · 14:55D. Belanchik2.00841111K. Tkachenko1.7311117113LSep 8 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.40815371S. Kryvoshyi2.75111311113LSep 8 · 12:55V. Dobrovolskyi1.4021111113K. Tkachenko2.75117781
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