TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136517
Played Sep 16Finished
Dmitriy Belanchik
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118811116119––
Orest Melnik
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:46 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeOrest Melnik to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmitriy Belanchik above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Orest Melnik at 61.2%
75 points played in total.
H2H Dmitriy Belanchik 9–10 Orest Melnik Dmitriy Belanchik has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:46What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Melnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-10 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Belanchik 1203 vs Melnik 1202
Belanchik
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Belanchik 60% vs Melnik 20%
Belanchik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Belanchik 50% vs Melnik 30%
Belanchik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Belanchik +2 · Melnik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Melnik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBelanchik 2.25 / Melnik 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Melnik)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13136517
Belanchik2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 16 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Melnik1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite76% won 47 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBelanchik4wins
AwayMelnik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBelanchik80%4 of 5
AwayMelnik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Belanchik5Melnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Belanchik2Melnik8n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S3Belanchik6Melnik4n = 10Belanchik took 6 of 10
S4Belanchik2Melnik4n = 6Melnik took 4 of 6
S5Belanchik2Melnik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBelanchikMelnikB − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.339.9−2.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBelanchikMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 246 vs 170 / 36545.1%46.6%111 / 246 vs 170 / 365Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.435.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikBelanchik 2.25/Melnik 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Belanchik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 06:55D. Belanchik4111811113O. Melnik34811691
LApr 1 · 11:25D. Belanchik3712131021O. Melnik48101512113
LMar 13 · 07:55D. Belanchik196670O. Melnik331111113
LMar 12 · 17:25D. Belanchik47951211102O. Melnik531111109123
WNov 26 · 10:25D. Belanchik331111113O. Melnik249870
LNov 25 · 17:55D. Belanchik177640O. Melnik331111113
WSep 17 · 09:25D. Belanchik541111129113O. Melnik49913101162
WSep 10 · 09:25D. Belanchik50119118113O. Melnik3241121142
LSep 9 · 14:25D. Belanchik209470O. Melnik331111113
LAug 14 · 04:55D. Belanchik55715117152O. Melnik601113811173
D. Belanchik10
WSep 16 · 04:55D. Belanchik1.9181111113O. Maksymkiv1.80118671WSep 13 · 17:55I. Fokin1.8071411592D. Belanchik1.911112711113LSep 13 · 16:55D. Belanchik2.38116881V. Kheresko1.5381111113WSep 13 · 15:55D. Belanchik1.73111111113V. Salivonchyk2.00613381LSep 13 · 14:25D. Belanchik1.8381080O. Sapuzhak1.831112113WSep 13 · 12:25D. Belanchik1.831111108113M. Treschetka1.8374121142LSep 9 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.2811117113D. Belanchik3.50541131WSep 9 · 09:25D. Belanchik2.10121111123O. Maksymkiv1.671437101LSep 9 · 08:25D. Belanchik1.80761191A. Didyk1.9111111113LSep 9 · 06:55D. Belanchik2.5045100V. Dobrovolskyi1.501111123
O. Melnik10
LSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113WSep 15 · 17:55O. Maksymkiv3.4011117572O. Melnik1.30891111113LSep 15 · 16:55O. Melnik1.73126100D. Kasian2.001411123LSep 15 · 15:55O. Melnik2.385116101V. Hel1.5311411123LSep 15 · 14:25O. Melnik4.509490K. Tkachenko1.171111113LSep 15 · 12:25O. Melnik3.25117641S. Kryvoshyi1.3381111113WSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113
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