TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131338
Played Sep 15Finished
Orest Melnik
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111146111012––
Valerii Hel
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Hel to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Valerii Hel below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 70 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Valerii Hel at 64.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 5–8 Valerii Hel Orest Melnik has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:46What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Hel
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1234 vs Hel 1299
Hel
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 40% vs Hel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 40% vs Hel 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -2 · Hel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Hel) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 2.38 / Hel 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Hel)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13131338
Melnik2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 37 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Hel1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 51 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik4wins
AwayHel6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHel leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik60%3 of 5
AwayHel80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik5Hel5n = 10split evenly
S2Melnik5Hel5n = 10split evenly
S3Melnik5Hel5n = 10split evenly
S4Melnik4Hel5n = 9Hel took 5 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikHelM − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.238.9+0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikHelBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 360 vs 122 / 21446.9%57%169 / 360 vs 122 / 214Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HelMelnik 2.38/Hel 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 5 · 05:25O. Melnik42611121122V. Hel49117146113
LAug 4 · 13:55O. Melnik407131191V. Hel4411157113
WJul 29 · 05:25O. Melnik4381113113V. Hel351171161
LJul 21 · 13:55O. Melnik438111591V. Hel4811917113
WJul 15 · 07:25O. Melnik43111011113V. Hel35712971
LJul 9 · 07:55O. Melnik34811961V. Hel4211911113
WJun 10 · 10:55O. Melnik331111113V. Hel189270
WJun 9 · 18:25O. Melnik3911611113V. Hel33711691
LMay 29 · 09:28O. Melnik411571091V. Hel47131112113
LMay 29 · 07:55O. Melnik34118961V. Hel3851111113
O. Melnik10
LSep 15 · 14:25O. Melnik4.509490K. Tkachenko1.171111113LSep 15 · 12:25O. Melnik3.25117641S. Kryvoshyi1.3381111113WSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113WSep 2 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv3.006540O. Melnik1.361111113LSep 1 · 18:55O. Melnik3.754590S. Kryvoshyi1.251111113LSep 1 · 16:55A. Didyk1.611161110113O. Melnik2.2081171262WSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113
V. Hel10
WSep 15 · 13:55D. Kasian2.1051180V. Hel1.671113113LSep 15 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv1.91471311113V. Hel1.80111111832LAug 6 · 18:25V. Hel2.206111251M. Styranets1.6111514113LAug 6 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi4.5081115113V. Hel1.171171381WAug 6 · 15:25V. Hel1.571111113A. Didyk2.257780LAug 6 · 14:25K. Tkachenko1.6711811113V. Hel2.10911891LAug 6 · 12:55V. Hel1.57117981S. Kryvoshyi2.2551111113LAug 5 · 11:25V. Hel2.0011104101R. Bihun1.7371211123WAug 5 · 09:25S. Kryvoshyi2.201141281V. Hel1.6161114113LAug 5 · 07:25A. Didyk2.6361111113V. Hel1.44117781
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