TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131296
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleh Maksymkiv
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118119711511711
Orest Melnik
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 75.8% is still 75.8%
Graded at full timeOrest Melnik to win
75.8%
75.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Orest Melnik at 75.8%
91 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 1–13 Orest Melnik Oleh Maksymkiv has won 1 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:29What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-13 in 14
Melnik
Correct
gap of 12 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1238 vs Melnik 1214
Maksymkiv
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 20% vs Melnik 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 40% vs Melnik 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv -3 · Melnik -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Melnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 3.40 / Melnik 1.30
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Melnik)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13131296
Maksymkiv3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 56 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Melnik1.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite77% won 49 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv1wins
AwayMelnik9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkivn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMelnik100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv1Melnik9n = 10Melnik took 9 of 10
S2Maksymkiv3Melnik7n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S3Maksymkiv3Melnik7n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S4Maksymkiv3Melnik3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksymkivMelnikMaksymkiv − MelnikBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match29.739.7−10.0per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime382 / 731 vs 169 / 36252.3%46.7%382 / 731 vs 169 / 362Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.135.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMaksymkiv 3.40/Melnik 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.8%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv156540O. Melnik331111113
LAug 19 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv361211851O. Melnik4014411113
LAug 13 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv25451151O. Melnik4011117113
LJul 15 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv1910540O. Melnik341211113
LJul 14 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv25331181O. Melnik4211119113
LJul 9 · 08:55O. Maksymkiv51912614102O. Melnik5611101112123
WJul 7 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv3911512113O. Melnik379111071
LJul 1 · 04:55O. Maksymkiv4171181142O. Melnik44116115113
LJun 30 · 13:55O. Maksymkiv178630O. Melnik331111113
LJun 4 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv29106130O. Melnik381211153
O. Maksymkiv10
LSep 15 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv3.4011911762K. Tkachenko1.30711811113LSep 15 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv2.205650D. Kasian1.611111113LSep 15 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv2.508820S. Kryvoshyi1.501111113WSep 15 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv1.91471311113V. Hel1.80111111832LSep 9 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv3.75521171D. Kozoriz1.2511117113LSep 9 · 09:25D. Belanchik2.10121111123O. Maksymkiv1.671437101WSep 9 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.4411115492O. Maksymkiv2.63741111113WSep 9 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv2.6311115113A. Didyk1.44571151WSep 9 · 05:25V. Dobrovolskyi1.67149811102O. Maksymkiv2.101211119123LSep 7 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv1.80711481V. Salivonchyk1.9111911113
O. Melnik10
LSep 15 · 16:55O. Melnik1.73126100D. Kasian2.001411123LSep 15 · 15:55O. Melnik2.385116101V. Hel1.5311411123LSep 15 · 14:25O. Melnik4.509490K. Tkachenko1.171111113LSep 15 · 12:25O. Melnik3.25117641S. Kryvoshyi1.3381111113WSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113WSep 2 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv3.006540O. Melnik1.361111113LSep 1 · 18:55O. Melnik3.754590S. Kryvoshyi1.251111113
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