TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121919
Played Sep 13Finished
Dmitriy Belanchik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012811––––
Oleg Sapuzhak
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmitriy Belanchik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmitriy Belanchik above · Oleg Sapuzhak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 60 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Dmitriy Belanchik at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Dmitriy Belanchik 4–3 Oleg Sapuzhak Oleg Sapuzhak has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sapuzhak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Belanchik 1187 vs Sapuzhak 1135
Belanchik
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Belanchik 40% vs Sapuzhak 20%
Belanchik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Belanchik 30% vs Sapuzhak 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Belanchik +1 · Sapuzhak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Belanchik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sapuzhak form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBelanchik 1.83 / Sapuzhak 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Belanchik)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13121919
Belanchik1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Sapuzhak1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBelanchik4wins
AwaySapuzhak3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderBelanchik leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBelanchikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySapuzhak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Belanchik2Sapuzhak5n = 7Sapuzhak took 5 of 7
S2Belanchik3Sapuzhak4n = 7Sapuzhak took 4 of 7
S3Belanchik4Sapuzhak3n = 7Belanchik took 4 of 7
S4Belanchik4Sapuzhak2n = 6Belanchik took 4 of 6
S5Belanchik2Sapuzhak1n = 3Belanchik took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricBelanchikSapuzhakB − SBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match39.741.3−1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBelanchikSapuzhakBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 240 vs 75 / 18244.6%41.2%107 / 240 vs 75 / 182Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.335.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BelanchikBelanchik 1.83/Sapuzhak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Belanchik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sapuzhak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 23 · 13:55D. Belanchik539111111113O. Sapuzhak5011981392
LAug 20 · 09:25D. Belanchik401611491O. Sapuzhak4618611113
LAug 19 · 14:25D. Belanchik50811111192O. Sapuzhak52119138113
WJul 26 · 17:25D. Belanchik4111811113O. Sapuzhak27411571
WJan 31 · 05:55D. Belanchik4212811113O. Sapuzhak361011961
WOct 19 · 04:55D. Belanchik44811311113O. Sapuzhak50111111892
LOct 18 · 14:55D. Belanchik82600O. Sapuzhak28111163
D. Belanchik10
WSep 13 · 12:25D. Belanchik1.831111108113M. Treschetka1.8374121142LSep 9 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.2811117113D. Belanchik3.50541131WSep 9 · 09:25D. Belanchik2.10121111123O. Maksymkiv1.671437101LSep 9 · 08:25D. Belanchik1.80761191A. Didyk1.9111111113LSep 9 · 06:55D. Belanchik2.5045100V. Dobrovolskyi1.501111123LSep 9 · 04:55D. Belanchik3.253540D. Kozoriz1.331111113LSep 8 · 17:55D. Belanchik3.008270D. Kozoriz1.361111113WSep 8 · 16:25D. Belanchik2.63115189113V. Dobrovolskyi1.44911161192LSep 8 · 14:55D. Belanchik2.00841111K. Tkachenko1.7311117113LSep 8 · 13:25D. Belanchik2.50107111162V. Kheresko1.50121157113
O. Sapuzhak10
LSep 13 · 12:55O. Sapuzhak3.50311661V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113WSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113LSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LAug 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.8091112113O. Sapuzhak1.911181081WAug 30 · 17:25O. Sapuzhak2.20113117113M. Dunas1.6191141182LAug 30 · 15:25M. Treschetka1.57114911113O. Sapuzhak2.2551111342WAug 30 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.639970O. Sapuzhak1.441111113
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