TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121876
Played Sep 13Finished
Illia Fokin
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111412117511911
Dmitriy Belanchik
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:59 and never touched — 68.6% is still 68.6%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
68.6%
68.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Dmitriy Belanchik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 98 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Illia Fokin at 68.6%
98 points played in total.
H2H Illia Fokin 1–0 Dmitriy Belanchik Dmitriy Belanchik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:59What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Fokin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1099 vs Belanchik 1151
Belanchik
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 40% vs Belanchik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 60% vs Belanchik 30%
Fokin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin -3 · Belanchik -1
Fokin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Belanchik) · live re-read · sealed at 31% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Belanchik form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 1.80 / Belanchik 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Belanchik)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13121876
Fokin1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 59 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it84% 32 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it73% 48 of 66
Belanchik1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 15 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeFokin1wins
AwayBelanchik0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderFokin leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricFokinBelanchikF − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match50.050.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinBelanchikBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 257 vs 108 / 24353.7%44.4%138 / 257 vs 108 / 243Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BelanchikFokin 1.80/Belanchik 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Belanchik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Belanchik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 19 · 12:55I. Fokin501111311143D. Belanchik50771113122
I. Fokin10
LSep 13 · 16:25I. Fokin2.101051271O. Sapuzhak1.67121110113LSep 13 · 14:55I. Fokin2.38211781V. Kheresko1.5311911113LSep 13 · 13:25I. Fokin2.25791171M. Treschetka1.5711116113WSep 13 · 11:55I. Fokin2.381111103V. Salivonchyk1.539780WSep 10 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi2.00611661I. Fokin1.7311911113WSep 10 · 09:55I. Fokin1.17611117113O. Bolnyh4.5011971192WSep 10 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi2.258115101I. Fokin1.5711811123LSep 10 · 05:55M. Dunas2.6311129113I. Fokin1.442101141WSep 10 · 04:55A. Nikolenko1.80111061192I. Fokin1.91812113113WSep 9 · 18:25I. Fokin1.5012119113O. Bolnyh2.501091191
D. Belanchik10
LSep 13 · 16:55D. Belanchik2.38116881V. Kheresko1.5381111113WSep 13 · 15:55D. Belanchik1.73111111113V. Salivonchyk2.00613381LSep 13 · 14:25D. Belanchik1.8381080O. Sapuzhak1.831112113WSep 13 · 12:25D. Belanchik1.831111108113M. Treschetka1.8374121142LSep 9 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.2811117113D. Belanchik3.50541131WSep 9 · 09:25D. Belanchik2.10121111123O. Maksymkiv1.671437101LSep 9 · 08:25D. Belanchik1.80761191A. Didyk1.9111111113LSep 9 · 06:55D. Belanchik2.5045100V. Dobrovolskyi1.501111123LSep 9 · 04:55D. Belanchik3.253540D. Kozoriz1.331111113LSep 8 · 17:55D. Belanchik3.008270D. Kozoriz1.361111113
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