TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105652
Played Sep 10Finished
Anatolii Nikolenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181012611113911
Illia Fokin
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Nikolenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnatolii Nikolenko above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Anatolii Nikolenko at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nikolenko 27–16 Illia Fokin Illia Fokin has won 16 of their 43 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 15h before this match
Nikolenko beat Fokin 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:07What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Nikolenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-16 in 43
Nikolenko
Wrong
gap of 11 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nikolenko 1086 vs Fokin 1092
Fokin
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nikolenko 100% vs Fokin 80%
Nikolenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nikolenko 60% vs Fokin 80%
Fokin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nikolenko +5 · Fokin +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fokin) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNikolenko 1.80 / Fokin 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Fokin)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13105652
Nikolenko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite71% won 95 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it98% 58 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it87% 73 of 84
Fokin1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog49% won 39 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNikolenko6wins
AwayFokin4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNikolenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNikolenko100%3 of 3
AwayFokin57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nikolenko3Fokin7n = 10Fokin took 7 of 10
S2Nikolenko7Fokin3n = 10Nikolenko took 7 of 10
S3Nikolenko8Fokin2n = 10Nikolenko took 8 of 10
S4Nikolenko3Fokin3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNikolenkoFokinN − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.935.9+2.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNikolenkoFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime331 / 694 vs 133 / 24847.7%53.6%331 / 694 vs 133 / 248Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FokinNikolenko 1.80/Fokin 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 14:25A. Nikolenko—71311113I. Fokin—1111751
LAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko—8131051I. Fokin—11111293
WAug 19 · 18:55A. Nikolenko—1111113I. Fokin—9680
WAug 15 · 04:55A. Nikolenko—1111113I. Fokin—9470
LAug 14 · 15:55A. Nikolenko—56110I. Fokin—1111133
WAug 11 · 08:55A. Nikolenko—41311113I. Fokin—1111351
LAug 10 · 12:25A. Nikolenko—871181I. Fokin—11117113
LJul 23 · 07:55A. Nikolenko—791411102I. Fokin—1111129123
WJul 22 · 15:55A. Nikolenko—1311113I. Fokin—11960
WJul 16 · 07:25A. Nikolenko—913118133I. Fokin—1111911112
A. Nikolenko10
WSep 9 · 17:55O. Maslovskyi1.366116101A. Nikolenko3.0011411123WSep 9 · 16:55A. Nikolenko2.0071112113M. Dunas1.731121091WSep 9 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.141111113O. Bolnyh5.006570WSep 9 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.8371311113I. Fokin1.831111751WSep 9 · 12:25A. Nikolenko3.0091111123V. Ivanytskyi1.361189101WSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.67711119163A. Nikolenko2.10118811142LSep 3 · 07:25M. Dunas1.671113125113A. Nikolenko2.10711141122LSep 3 · 06:25A. Nikolenko2.637370V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113LSep 3 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi1.36111116113A. Nikolenko3.00471841
I. Fokin10
LSep 10 · 05:55M. Dunas2.6311129113I. Fokin1.442101141WSep 9 · 18:25I. Fokin1.5012119113O. Bolnyh2.501091191WSep 9 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi2.00871181I. Fokin1.7311115113WSep 9 · 15:25I. Fokin1.9111119113V. Ivanytskyi1.80491171LSep 9 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.8371311113I. Fokin1.831111751WSep 9 · 12:55I. Fokin1.6711811113M. Dunas2.10311981WAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153WAug 21 · 17:25V. Sydorchuk3.755640I. Fokin1.251111113WAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.618131051I. Fokin2.2011111293WAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113
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