TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100688
Played Sep 9Finished
Anatolii Nikolenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111311117115––
Illia Fokin
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnatolii Nikolenko above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 76 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Illia Fokin at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nikolenko 26–16 Illia Fokin Illia Fokin has won 16 of their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:14What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Fokin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-16 in 42
Nikolenko
Correct
gap of 10 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nikolenko 1014 vs Fokin 1091
Fokin
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nikolenko 40% vs Fokin 100%
Fokin
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nikolenko 20% vs Fokin 70%
Fokin
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nikolenko +2 · Fokin +5
Fokin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fokin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNikolenko 1.83 / Fokin 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Fokin)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13100688
Nikolenko1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Fokin1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNikolenko5wins
AwayFokin5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNikolenko100%3 of 3
AwayFokin71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nikolenko3Fokin7n = 10Fokin took 7 of 10
S2Nikolenko6Fokin4n = 10Nikolenko took 6 of 10
S3Nikolenko7Fokin3n = 10Nikolenko took 7 of 10
S4Nikolenko2Fokin3n = 5Fokin took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNikolenkoFokinN − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.135.8+0.3per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNikolenkoFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 694 vs 130 / 24447.3%53.3%328 / 694 vs 130 / 244Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FokinNikolenko 1.83/Fokin 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nikolenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko—8131051I. Fokin—11111293
WAug 19 · 18:55A. Nikolenko—1111113I. Fokin—9680
WAug 15 · 04:55A. Nikolenko—1111113I. Fokin—9470
LAug 14 · 15:55A. Nikolenko—56110I. Fokin—1111133
WAug 11 · 08:55A. Nikolenko—41311113I. Fokin—1111351
LAug 10 · 12:25A. Nikolenko—871181I. Fokin—11117113
LJul 23 · 07:55A. Nikolenko—791411102I. Fokin—1111129123
WJul 22 · 15:55A. Nikolenko—1311113I. Fokin—11960
WJul 16 · 07:25A. Nikolenko—913118133I. Fokin—1111911112
LJul 7 · 08:35A. Nikolenko—8790I. Fokin—1111113
A. Nikolenko10
WSep 9 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.141111113O. Bolnyh5.006570WSep 9 · 12:25A. Nikolenko3.0091111123V. Ivanytskyi1.361189101WSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.67711119163A. Nikolenko2.10118811142LSep 3 · 07:25M. Dunas1.671113125113A. Nikolenko2.10711141122LSep 3 · 06:25A. Nikolenko2.637370V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113LSep 3 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi1.36111116113A. Nikolenko3.00471841LSep 2 · 17:55M. Treschetka1.731112123A. Nikolenko2.00910100LSep 2 · 16:55A. Nikolenko3.00155331O. Maslovskyi1.36131111113LSep 2 · 15:55A. Nikolenko2.6371111862V. Ivanytskyi1.44117811113
I. Fokin10
WSep 9 · 15:25I. Fokin1.9111119113V. Ivanytskyi1.80491171WSep 9 · 12:55I. Fokin1.6711811113M. Dunas2.10311981WAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153WAug 21 · 17:25V. Sydorchuk3.755640I. Fokin1.251111113WAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.618131051I. Fokin2.2011111293WAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113LAug 21 · 11:55Y. Shcherbak4.50712511133I. Fokin1.171110119112LAug 19 · 18:55I. Fokin2.009680A. Nikolenko1.731111113LAug 19 · 16:55O. Sapuzhak1.5711511113I. Fokin2.25811431WAug 19 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.911091111102I. Fokin1.80121158123
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