TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100606
Played Sep 9Finished
Illia Fokin
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113811119118––
Mykhailo Dunas
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Mykhailo Dunas below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Illia Fokin at 56.6%
72 points played in total.
H2H Illia Fokin 1–0 Mykhailo Dunas Mykhailo Dunas has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:19What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Fokin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1078 vs Dunas 1081
Dunas
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 80% vs Dunas 20%
Fokin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 70% vs Dunas 40%
Fokin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin +4 · Dunas -2
Fokin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Fokin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dunas form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 1.67 / Dunas 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Fokin)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13100606
Fokin1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 56 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it84% 31 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it69% 44 of 64
Dunas2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog31% won 11 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back9% 2 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeFokin1wins
AwayDunas0wins
Fokin leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricFokinDunasF − DBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match42.033.0+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinDunasBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 243 vs 19 / 5353.1%35.9%129 / 243 vs 19 / 53Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FokinFokin 1.67/Dunas 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 19 · 13:55I. Fokin—11911113M. Dunas—711781
I. Fokin10
WAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153WAug 21 · 17:25V. Sydorchuk3.755640I. Fokin1.251111113WAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.618131051I. Fokin2.2011111293WAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113LAug 21 · 11:55Y. Shcherbak4.50712511133I. Fokin1.171110119112LAug 19 · 18:55I. Fokin2.009680A. Nikolenko1.731111113LAug 19 · 16:55O. Sapuzhak1.5711511113I. Fokin2.25811431WAug 19 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.911091111102I. Fokin1.80121158123WAug 19 · 13:55I. Fokin1.9111911113M. Dunas1.80711781WAug 19 · 12:55D. Belanchik1.73771113122I. Fokin2.001111311143
M. Dunas10
LSep 3 · 10:25M. Dunas2.206780M. Treschetka1.611111113LSep 3 · 08:55M. Dunas1.57118781O. Maslovskyi2.2591111113WSep 3 · 07:25M. Dunas1.671113125113A. Nikolenko2.10711141122LSep 3 · 05:55M. Dunas3.40971541O. Maksymkiv1.30111113113LSep 3 · 04:25M. Dunas1.5011119692V. Ivanytskyi2.40041111113WSep 2 · 18:55O. Maslovskyi2.00241181M. Dunas1.7311119113WSep 2 · 17:25M. Dunas1.671112113V. Ivanytskyi2.1081070LSep 2 · 15:25Y. Melnyk1.801111113M. Dunas1.916860LSep 2 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.8351111113M. Dunas1.83119421LAug 19 · 13:55I. Fokin1.9111911113M. Dunas1.80711781
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