TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100549
Played Sep 9Finished
Illia Fokin
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114119911117––
Viktor Ivanytskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Viktor Ivanytskyi below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Illia Fokin at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Illia Fokin 9–9 Viktor Ivanytskyi Dead even across their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:47What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ivanytskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-9 in 18
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1062 vs Ivanytskyi 1074
Ivanytskyi
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 80% vs Ivanytskyi 60%
Fokin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 60% vs Ivanytskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin -1 · Ivanytskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ivanytskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 1.91 / Ivanytskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ivanytskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13100549
Fokin1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 38 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Ivanytskyi1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite74% won 70 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it100% 38 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it89% 55 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFokin5wins
AwayIvanytskyi5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFokin100%4 of 4
AwayIvanytskyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fokin4Ivanytskyi6n = 10Ivanytskyi took 6 of 10
S2Fokin6Ivanytskyi4n = 10Fokin took 6 of 10
S3Fokin5Ivanytskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Fokin3Ivanytskyi5n = 8Ivanytskyi took 5 of 8
S5Fokin3Ivanytskyi2n = 5Fokin took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFokinIvanytskyiF − IBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.141.2−0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinIvanytskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 245 vs 103 / 17153.1%60.2%130 / 245 vs 103 / 171Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvanytskyiFokin 1.91/Ivanytskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ivanytskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 13:55I. Fokin—912114113V. Ivanytskyi—111071152
LAug 14 · 17:25I. Fokin—71111692V. Ivanytskyi—119511113
WAug 11 · 05:55I. Fokin—11117113V. Ivanytskyi—681161
LAug 10 · 18:55I. Fokin—7111111102V. Ivanytskyi—111369123
LJul 23 · 04:55I. Fokin—11115121V. Ivanytskyi—13911143
LJul 22 · 18:25I. Fokin—410100V. Ivanytskyi—1112123
WJul 16 · 10:25I. Fokin—1111113V. Ivanytskyi—5690
WJul 7 · 10:05I. Fokin—113129113V. Ivanytskyi—711101192
WJun 11 · 17:25I. Fokin—117912113V. Ivanytskyi—511111092
LJun 9 · 10:09I. Fokin—10111161V. Ivanytskyi—12713113
I. Fokin10
LSep 9 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.8371311113I. Fokin1.831111751WSep 9 · 12:55I. Fokin1.6711811113M. Dunas2.10311981WAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153WAug 21 · 17:25V. Sydorchuk3.755640I. Fokin1.251111113WAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.618131051I. Fokin2.2011111293WAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113LAug 21 · 11:55Y. Shcherbak4.50712511133I. Fokin1.171110119112LAug 19 · 18:55I. Fokin2.009680A. Nikolenko1.731111113LAug 19 · 16:55O. Sapuzhak1.5711511113I. Fokin2.25811431WAug 19 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.911091111102I. Fokin1.80121158123
V. Ivanytskyi10
WSep 9 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi1.678930V. Ivanytskyi2.101111113LSep 9 · 12:25A. Nikolenko3.0091111123V. Ivanytskyi1.361189101LSep 3 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.73111287113V. Ivanytskyi2.00610111132WSep 3 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.4411119992V. Ivanytskyi2.63751111113WSep 3 · 08:25M. Treschetka1.40117118162V. Ivanytskyi2.75711711183WSep 3 · 06:25A. Nikolenko2.637370V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113WSep 3 · 04:25M. Dunas1.5011119692V. Ivanytskyi2.40041111113LSep 2 · 18:25Y. Melnyk1.731111113V. Ivanytskyi2.006870LSep 2 · 17:25M. Dunas1.671112113V. Ivanytskyi2.1081070LAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113
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