TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100630
Played Sep 9Finished
Illia Fokin
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210119911119––
Oleksandr Bolnyh
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Oleksandr Bolnyh below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 82 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Illia Fokin at 61.7%
82 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Fokin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1087 vs Bolnyh 809
Fokin
Correct
both rated, 278 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 80% vs Bolnyh 20%
Fokin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 70% vs Bolnyh 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin +2 · Bolnyh -4
Bolnyh
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Fokin) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bolnyh form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 1.50 / Bolnyh 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Fokin)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13100630
Fokin1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 56 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it84% 31 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it69% 44 of 64
Bolnyh2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 41 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back22% 14 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinBolnyhBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 247 vs 83 / 18253.4%45.6%132 / 247 vs 83 / 182Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FokinFokin 1.50/Bolnyh 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fokin won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
I. Fokin10
WSep 9 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi2.00871181I. Fokin1.7311115113WSep 9 · 15:25I. Fokin1.9111119113V. Ivanytskyi1.80491171LSep 9 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.8371311113I. Fokin1.831111751WSep 9 · 12:55I. Fokin1.6711811113M. Dunas2.10311981WAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153WAug 21 · 17:25V. Sydorchuk3.755640I. Fokin1.251111113WAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.618131051I. Fokin2.2011111293WAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113LAug 21 · 11:55Y. Shcherbak4.50712511133I. Fokin1.171110119112LAug 19 · 18:55I. Fokin2.009680A. Nikolenko1.731111113
O. Bolnyh10
LSep 9 · 17:25V. Ivanytskyi1.1411811133O. Bolnyh5.005118111LSep 9 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.141111113O. Bolnyh5.006570LSep 9 · 13:55M. Dunas1.441111113O. Bolnyh2.636630LSep 9 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi1.501116113O. Bolnyh2.5071450WSep 5 · 11:25O. Bolnyh1.8011113123V. Sydorchuk1.918911101WSep 5 · 09:25O. Kulbach5.005940O. Bolnyh1.141111113WSep 5 · 07:25M. Kornijchuk1.835670O. Bolnyh1.831111113WSep 5 · 06:25O. Bolnyh1.4411116113M. Senyk2.63771181WSep 5 · 05:25A. Lanchut8.00781171O. Bolnyh1.0611119113WAug 30 · 10:25O. Bolnyh3.25117119113P. Chyzh1.3391191132
Upcoming Matches
I. Fokin
O. Bolnyh
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.