TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100624
Played Sep 9Finished
Oleksandr Maslovskyi
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711115811––
Illia Fokin
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Maslovskyi above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Illia Fokin at 59.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Maslovskyi 4–6 Illia Fokin Oleksandr Maslovskyi has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:10What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Fokin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Fokin
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maslovskyi 1088 vs Fokin 1075
Maslovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maslovskyi 80% vs Fokin 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maslovskyi 70% vs Fokin 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maslovskyi +1 · Fokin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Fokin) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaslovskyi 2.00 / Fokin 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Fokin)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13100624
Maslovskyi2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 68 of 218
Down 0–1, comes back20% 30 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 84
Fokin1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 56 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it84% 31 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it69% 44 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaslovskyi4wins
AwayFokin6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderFokin leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaslovskyin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFokin66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maslovskyi1Fokin9n = 10Fokin took 9 of 10
S2Maslovskyi3Fokin7n = 10Fokin took 7 of 10
S3Maslovskyi5Fokin5n = 10split evenly
S4Maslovskyi6Fokin1n = 7Maslovskyi took 6 of 7
S5Maslovskyi3Fokin3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaslovskyiFokinM − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match41.743.1−1.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaslovskyiFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime435 / 862 vs 131 / 24650.5%53.3%435 / 862 vs 131 / 246Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FokinMaslovskyi 2.00/Fokin 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi—1091111102I. Fokin—121158123
LMay 23 · 04:55O. Maslovskyi—811711112I. Fokin—115115133
WMay 9 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi—671111113I. Fokin—11113782
LApr 23 · 09:25O. Maslovskyi—59110I. Fokin—1111133
LApr 22 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi—11640I. Fokin—1311113
LApr 14 · 15:25O. Maslovskyi—71113392I. Fokin—1161111113
WMar 28 · 07:25O. Maslovskyi—13111111153I. Fokin—151397132
WMar 27 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi—491411113I. Fokin—111112962
LMar 18 · 18:25O. Maslovskyi—68170I. Fokin—1111193
WJan 29 · 07:25O. Maslovskyi—11119113I. Fokin—781151
O. Maslovskyi10
WSep 9 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.8312613113M. Dunas1.8310111131LSep 9 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi1.678930V. Ivanytskyi2.101111113WSep 9 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi1.501116113O. Bolnyh2.5071450WSep 3 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.73111287113V. Ivanytskyi2.00610111132WSep 3 · 08:55M. Dunas1.57118781O. Maslovskyi2.2591111113LSep 3 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4.3391111672O. Maksymkiv1.20116611113WSep 3 · 06:55M. Treschetka2.0065111182O. Maslovskyi1.73111189113WSep 3 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi1.36111116113A. Nikolenko3.00471841LSep 2 · 18:55O. Maslovskyi2.00241181M. Dunas1.7311119113WSep 2 · 16:55A. Nikolenko3.00155331O. Maslovskyi1.36131111113
I. Fokin10
WSep 9 · 15:25I. Fokin1.9111119113V. Ivanytskyi1.80491171LSep 9 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.8371311113I. Fokin1.831111751WSep 9 · 12:55I. Fokin1.6711811113M. Dunas2.10311981WAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153WAug 21 · 17:25V. Sydorchuk3.755640I. Fokin1.251111113WAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.618131051I. Fokin2.2011111293WAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113LAug 21 · 11:55Y. Shcherbak4.50712511133I. Fokin1.171110119112LAug 19 · 18:55I. Fokin2.009680A. Nikolenko1.731111113LAug 19 · 16:55O. Sapuzhak1.5711511113I. Fokin2.25811431
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