TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105856
Played Sep 10Finished
Mykhailo Dunas
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1121210911114––
Illia Fokin
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:45 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Dunas above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 70 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Illia Fokin at 67.3%
70 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Dunas 0–2 Illia Fokin Mykhailo Dunas has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Fokin beat Dunas 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:45What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Fokin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dunas 1062 vs Fokin 1092
Fokin
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dunas 40% vs Fokin 80%
Fokin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dunas 30% vs Fokin 80%
Fokin
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dunas +1 · Fokin +3
Fokin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Fokin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDunas 2.63 / Fokin 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Fokin)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13105856
Dunas2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 11 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back8% 2 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Fokin1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite59% won 59 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it85% 33 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it70% 47 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeDunas0wins
AwayFokin2wins
Fokin leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away2
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricDunasFokinD − FBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match32.041.5−9.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDunasFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime21 / 58 vs 133 / 24836.2%53.6%21 / 58 vs 133 / 248Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FokinDunas 2.63/Fokin 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dunas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 9 · 12:55M. Dunas—311981I. Fokin—11811113
LAug 19 · 13:55M. Dunas—711781I. Fokin—11911113
M. Dunas10
WSep 10 · 04:25M. Dunas1.171111113O. Bolnyh4.509360WSep 9 · 18:55M. Dunas1.8011811133V. Ivanytskyi1.918118111LSep 9 · 16:55A. Nikolenko2.0071112113M. Dunas1.731121091LSep 9 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.8312613113M. Dunas1.8310111131WSep 9 · 13:55M. Dunas1.441111113O. Bolnyh2.636630LSep 9 · 12:55I. Fokin1.6711811113M. Dunas2.10311981LSep 3 · 10:25M. Dunas2.206780M. Treschetka1.611111113LSep 3 · 08:55M. Dunas1.57118781O. Maslovskyi2.2591111113WSep 3 · 07:25M. Dunas1.671113125113A. Nikolenko2.10711141122LSep 3 · 05:55M. Dunas3.40971541O. Maksymkiv1.30111113113
I. Fokin10
WSep 10 · 04:55A. Nikolenko1.80111061192I. Fokin1.91812113113WSep 9 · 18:25I. Fokin1.5012119113O. Bolnyh2.501091191WSep 9 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi2.00871181I. Fokin1.7311115113WSep 9 · 15:25I. Fokin1.9111119113V. Ivanytskyi1.80491171LSep 9 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.8371311113I. Fokin1.831111751WSep 9 · 12:55I. Fokin1.6711811113M. Dunas2.10311981WAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153WAug 21 · 17:25V. Sydorchuk3.755640I. Fokin1.251111113WAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.618131051I. Fokin2.2011111293WAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113
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