TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122121
Played Sep 13Finished
Illia Fokin
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10125111210711––
Oleg Sapuzhak
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 68.6% is still 68.6%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
68.6%
68.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Oleg Sapuzhak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 78 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Illia Fokin at 68.6%
78 points played in total.
H2H Illia Fokin 0–1 Oleg Sapuzhak Illia Fokin has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:56What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sapuzhak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1096 vs Sapuzhak 1170
Sapuzhak
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 60% vs Sapuzhak 40%
Fokin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 70% vs Sapuzhak 30%
Fokin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin -2 · Sapuzhak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Sapuzhak) · live re-read · sealed at 31% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sapuzhak form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 2.10 / Sapuzhak 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Sapuzhak)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13122121
Fokin2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 33 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back30% 11 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Sapuzhak1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 15 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it71% 12 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeFokin0wins
AwaySapuzhak1wins
Sapuzhak leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricFokinSapuzhakF − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match26.038.0−12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinSapuzhakBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 256 vs 76 / 18453.9%41.3%138 / 256 vs 76 / 184Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SapuzhakFokin 2.10/Sapuzhak 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Sapuzhak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sapuzhak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 19 · 16:55I. Fokin26811431O. Sapuzhak3811511113
I. Fokin10
LSep 13 · 14:55I. Fokin2.38211781V. Kheresko1.5311911113LSep 13 · 13:25I. Fokin2.25791171M. Treschetka1.5711116113WSep 13 · 11:55I. Fokin2.381111103V. Salivonchyk1.539780WSep 10 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi2.00611661I. Fokin1.7311911113WSep 10 · 09:55I. Fokin1.17611117113O. Bolnyh4.5011971192WSep 10 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi2.258115101I. Fokin1.5711811123LSep 10 · 05:55M. Dunas2.6311129113I. Fokin1.442101141WSep 10 · 04:55A. Nikolenko1.80111061192I. Fokin1.91812113113WSep 9 · 18:25I. Fokin1.5012119113O. Bolnyh2.501091191WSep 9 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi2.00871181I. Fokin1.7311115113
O. Sapuzhak10
LSep 13 · 15:25O. Sapuzhak2.50913611M. Treschetka1.50111111113WSep 13 · 14:25D. Belanchik1.8381080O. Sapuzhak1.831112113LSep 13 · 12:55O. Sapuzhak3.50311661V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113WSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113LSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LAug 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.8091112113O. Sapuzhak1.911181081WAug 30 · 17:25O. Sapuzhak2.20113117113M. Dunas1.6191141182
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