TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121764
Played Sep 13Finished
Illia Fokin
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711911116711––
Mykolay Treschetka
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:50 and never touched — 75.5% is still 75.5%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
75.5%
75.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Mykolay Treschetka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Illia Fokin at 75.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Illia Fokin 0–1 Mykolay Treschetka Illia Fokin has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Treschetka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1136 vs Treschetka 1135
Fokin
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 80% vs Treschetka 0%
Fokin
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 80% vs Treschetka 30%
Fokin
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin +4 · Treschetka -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Treschetka) · live re-read · sealed at 25% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Treschetka form (0%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 2.25 / Treschetka 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Treschetka)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13121764
Fokin2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 33 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back30% 11 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Treschetka1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 64 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it81% 46 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeFokin0wins
AwayTreschetka1wins
Treschetka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricFokinTreschetkaF − TBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match16.033.0−17.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinTreschetkaBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 254 vs 474 / 94054.3%50.4%138 / 254 vs 474 / 940Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TreschetkaFokin 2.25/Treschetka 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Treschetka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Treschetka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LApr 28 · 05:55I. Fokin164840M. Treschetka331111113
I. Fokin10
WSep 13 · 11:55I. Fokin2.381111103V. Salivonchyk1.539780WSep 10 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi2.00611661I. Fokin1.7311911113WSep 10 · 09:55I. Fokin1.17611117113O. Bolnyh4.5011971192WSep 10 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi2.258115101I. Fokin1.5711811123LSep 10 · 05:55M. Dunas2.6311129113I. Fokin1.442101141WSep 10 · 04:55A. Nikolenko1.80111061192I. Fokin1.91812113113WSep 9 · 18:25I. Fokin1.5012119113O. Bolnyh2.501091191WSep 9 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi2.00871181I. Fokin1.7311115113WSep 9 · 15:25I. Fokin1.9111119113V. Ivanytskyi1.80491171LSep 9 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.8371311113I. Fokin1.831111751
M. Treschetka10
LSep 13 · 12:25D. Belanchik1.831111108113M. Treschetka1.8374121142LSep 7 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.201111113M. Treschetka4.337780LSep 7 · 09:25M. Treschetka2.2091111582V. Kheresko1.61113411113LSep 7 · 08:25M. Treschetka2.101110731V. Salivonchyk1.6761211113LSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 04:55M. Treschetka4.338670S. Kryvoshyi1.201111113LSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113WSep 6 · 16:55V. Salivonchyk1.73771181M. Treschetka2.0011111103WSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113WSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861
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