TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105805
Played Sep 10Finished
Illia Fokin
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611119117711119
Oleksandr Bolnyh
Away
4.50
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:47 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Oleksandr Bolnyh below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 93 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Illia Fokin at 75.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Illia Fokin 1–0 Oleksandr Bolnyh Oleksandr Bolnyh has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:47What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Fokin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1100 vs Bolnyh 792
Fokin
Correct
both rated, 308 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 80% vs Bolnyh 0%
Fokin
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 80% vs Bolnyh 30%
Fokin
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin +1 · Bolnyh -5
Bolnyh
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Fokin) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bolnyh form (0%) is below what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 1.17 / Bolnyh 4.50
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Fokin)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13105805
Fokin1.17
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 59 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it85% 33 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it70% 47 of 67
Bolnyh4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 41 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back21% 14 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeFokin1wins
AwayBolnyh0wins
Fokin leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricFokinBolnyhF − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match43.039.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinBolnyhBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 251 vs 83 / 18553.8%44.9%135 / 251 vs 83 / 185Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FokinFokin 1.17/Bolnyh 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.2%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 9 · 18:25I. Fokin—12119113O. Bolnyh—1091191
I. Fokin10
WSep 10 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi2.00611661I. Fokin1.7311911113WSep 10 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi2.258115101I. Fokin1.5711811123LSep 10 · 05:55M. Dunas2.6311129113I. Fokin1.442101141WSep 10 · 04:55A. Nikolenko1.80111061192I. Fokin1.91812113113WSep 9 · 18:25I. Fokin1.5012119113O. Bolnyh2.501091191WSep 9 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi2.00871181I. Fokin1.7311115113WSep 9 · 15:25I. Fokin1.9111119113V. Ivanytskyi1.80491171LSep 9 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.8371311113I. Fokin1.831111751WSep 9 · 12:55I. Fokin1.6711811113M. Dunas2.10311981WAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153
O. Bolnyh10
LSep 10 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.1711129113O. Bolnyh4.509101151LSep 10 · 08:25A. Nikolenko1.131113113O. Bolnyh5.5081170LSep 10 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.141111113O. Bolnyh5.008840LSep 10 · 04:25M. Dunas1.171111113O. Bolnyh4.509360LSep 9 · 18:25I. Fokin1.5012119113O. Bolnyh2.501091191LSep 9 · 17:25V. Ivanytskyi1.1411811133O. Bolnyh5.005118111LSep 9 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.141111113O. Bolnyh5.006570LSep 9 · 13:55M. Dunas1.441111113O. Bolnyh2.636630LSep 9 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi1.501116113O. Bolnyh2.5071450WSep 5 · 11:25O. Bolnyh1.8011113123V. Sydorchuk1.918911101
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