TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131119
Played Sep 15Finished
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113611811117116
Valerii Hel
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKyrylo Tkachenko above · Valerii Hel below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 85 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 60.1%
85 points played in total.
H2H Kyrylo Tkachenko 5–4 Valerii Hel Valerii Hel has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:00What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1398 vs Hel 1296
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 80% vs Hel 40%
Tkachenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 70% vs Hel 30%
Tkachenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko +3 · Hel -1
Tkachenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.57 / Hel 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Tkachenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13131119
Tkachenko1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 67 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it84% 51 of 61
Hel2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 28 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeTkachenko5wins
AwayHel4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderTkachenko leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkachenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayHel66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko6Hel3n = 9Tkachenko took 6 of 9
S2Tkachenko5Hel4n = 9Tkachenko took 5 of 9
S3Tkachenko6Hel3n = 9Tkachenko took 6 of 9
S4Tkachenko3Hel2n = 5Tkachenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricTkachenkoHelT − HBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match37.236.0+1.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoHelBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 178 vs 123 / 21656.2%56.9%100 / 178 vs 123 / 216Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoTkachenko 1.57/Hel 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 6 · 14:25K. Tkachenko4111811113V. Hel37911891
LAug 4 · 18:25K. Tkachenko45811111142V. Hel52119138113
WJul 28 · 18:25K. Tkachenko401811113V. Hel3116870
LJul 21 · 18:25K. Tkachenko371110971V. Hel4281211113
LJun 23 · 18:25K. Tkachenko4611812692V. Hel496111011113
WJun 16 · 18:25K. Tkachenko341111123V. Hel2248100
LMay 5 · 18:25K. Tkachenko196670V. Hel331111113
WApr 28 · 17:55K. Tkachenko4071111113V. Hel36119791
WApr 2 · 14:25K. Tkachenko331111113V. Hel228680
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 15 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv3.4011911762K. Tkachenko1.30711811113WSep 15 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.441711113S. Kryvoshyi2.6315970WSep 15 · 14:25O. Melnik4.509490K. Tkachenko1.171111113LSep 15 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.61971191D. Kasian2.2011117113WSep 8 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.221111113V. Kheresko4.006790WSep 8 · 16:55D. Kozoriz1.679490K. Tkachenko2.101111113WSep 8 · 14:55D. Belanchik2.00841111K. Tkachenko1.7311117113LSep 8 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.40815371S. Kryvoshyi2.75111311113LSep 8 · 12:55V. Dobrovolskyi1.4021111113K. Tkachenko2.75117781WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870
V. Hel10
LSep 15 · 17:25S. Kryvoshyi2.0011117113V. Hel1.73771171WSep 15 · 15:55O. Melnik2.385116101V. Hel1.5311411123WSep 15 · 13:55D. Kasian2.1051180V. Hel1.671113113LSep 15 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv1.91471311113V. Hel1.80111111832LAug 6 · 18:25V. Hel2.206111251M. Styranets1.6111514113LAug 6 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi4.5081115113V. Hel1.171171381WAug 6 · 15:25V. Hel1.571111113A. Didyk2.257780LAug 6 · 14:25K. Tkachenko1.6711811113V. Hel2.10911891LAug 6 · 12:55V. Hel1.57117981S. Kryvoshyi2.2551111113LAug 5 · 11:25V. Hel2.0011104101R. Bihun1.7371211123
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