TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131259
Played Sep 15Finished
Serhii Kryvoshyi
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117117711117––
Valerii Hel
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeValerii Hel to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Kryvoshyi above · Valerii Hel below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 72 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Valerii Hel at 56.6%
72 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kryvoshyi 9–8 Valerii Hel Valerii Hel has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:29What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kryvoshyi 1274 vs Hel 1309
Hel
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kryvoshyi 60% vs Hel 40%
Kryvoshyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kryvoshyi 60% vs Hel 40%
Kryvoshyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kryvoshyi -1 · Hel +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hel) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKryvoshyi 2.00 / Hel 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hel)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13131259
Kryvoshyi2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 23 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Hel1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 51 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKryvoshyi4wins
AwayHel6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHel leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKryvoshyi50%2 of 4
AwayHel66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kryvoshyi4Hel6n = 10Hel took 6 of 10
S2Kryvoshyi5Hel5n = 10split evenly
S3Kryvoshyi3Hel7n = 10Hel took 7 of 10
S4Kryvoshyi3Hel5n = 8Hel took 5 of 8
S5Kryvoshyi2Hel1n = 3Kryvoshyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKryvoshyiHelK − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.740.6−3.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKryvoshyiHelBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 556 vs 123 / 21545.5%57.2%253 / 556 vs 123 / 215Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HelKryvoshyi 2.00/Hel 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kryvoshyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 6 · 12:55S. Kryvoshyi3851111113V. Hel35117981
LAug 5 · 09:25S. Kryvoshyi351141281V. Hel4261114113
WAug 4 · 17:25S. Kryvoshyi451111012113V. Hel45115121072
LJul 29 · 10:55S. Kryvoshyi40914891V. Hel45111211113
WJul 28 · 17:25S. Kryvoshyi41134112113V. Hel49111181182
LJul 21 · 11:55S. Kryvoshyi229760V. Hel331111113
LJul 15 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi44111181042V. Hel48771112113
LMay 28 · 07:55S. Kryvoshyi2010460V. Hel341211113
WMay 21 · 10:55S. Kryvoshyi4211119113V. Hel30681151
LMay 6 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi40891491V. Hel45111112113
S. Kryvoshyi10
WSep 16 · 10:25S. Kryvoshyi1.73121167113D. Belanchik2.00102111172WSep 16 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.30911119113O. Melnik3.4011251192WSep 16 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.911011117113V. Hel1.8012881192WSep 16 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.755420LSep 16 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.2574100D. Kasian1.571111123LSep 15 · 18:55D. Kasian1.801111113S. Kryvoshyi1.917980LSep 15 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.441711113S. Kryvoshyi2.6315970WSep 15 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv2.508820S. Kryvoshyi1.501111113WSep 15 · 12:25O. Melnik3.25117641S. Kryvoshyi1.3381111113LSep 8 · 18:25V. Dobrovolskyi1.3611119113S. Kryvoshyi3.00831191
V. Hel10
LSep 16 · 11:25V. Hel1.808101171O. Maksymkiv1.9111125113WSep 16 · 09:25D. Belanchik1.67101112562V. Hel2.101271011113LSep 16 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.911011117113V. Hel1.8012881192LSep 16 · 06:25V. Hel1.67141111762D. Kasian2.101221311113WSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113LSep 15 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57116811113V. Hel2.2531111762WSep 15 · 15:55O. Melnik2.385116101V. Hel1.5311411123WSep 15 · 13:55D. Kasian2.1051180V. Hel1.671113113LSep 15 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv1.91471311113V. Hel1.80111111832LAug 6 · 18:25V. Hel2.206111251M. Styranets1.6111514113
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