TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136801
Played Sep 16Finished
Serhii Kryvoshyi
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115114112––––
Oleh Maksymkiv
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kryvoshyi to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kryvoshyi above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 44 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Serhii Kryvoshyi at 67.5%
44 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kryvoshyi 6–4 Oleh Maksymkiv Oleh Maksymkiv has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Kryvoshyi beat Maksymkiv 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:24What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kryvoshyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Kryvoshyi
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kryvoshyi 1263 vs Maksymkiv 1214
Kryvoshyi
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kryvoshyi 40% vs Maksymkiv 0%
Kryvoshyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kryvoshyi 50% vs Maksymkiv 30%
Kryvoshyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kryvoshyi -2 · Maksymkiv -5
Maksymkiv
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Kryvoshyi) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKryvoshyi 1.40 / Maksymkiv 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Kryvoshyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13136801
Kryvoshyi1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 64 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Maksymkiv2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 57 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back21% 17 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKryvoshyi6wins
AwayMaksymkiv4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKryvoshyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKryvoshyi100%6 of 6
AwayMaksymkiv100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kryvoshyi6Maksymkiv4n = 10Kryvoshyi took 6 of 10
S2Kryvoshyi8Maksymkiv2n = 10Kryvoshyi took 8 of 10
S3Kryvoshyi9Maksymkiv1n = 10Kryvoshyi took 9 of 10
S4Kryvoshyi1Maksymkiv4n = 5Maksymkiv took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKryvoshyiMaksymkivK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.830.9+5.9per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKryvoshyiMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 559 vs 382 / 73345.4%52.1%254 / 559 vs 382 / 733Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KryvoshyiKryvoshyi 1.40/Maksymkiv 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Kryvoshyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kryvoshyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 13:25S. Kryvoshyi331111113O. Maksymkiv188820
WSep 7 · 07:55S. Kryvoshyi47121113113O. Maksymkiv291021521
LSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi32881151O. Maksymkiv4111118113
LSep 2 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi501011131062O. Maksymkiv531271112113
WAug 19 · 07:55S. Kryvoshyi351111133O. Maksymkiv2164110
WJul 15 · 10:55S. Kryvoshyi351311113O. Maksymkiv2111460
WJul 14 · 11:55S. Kryvoshyi331111113O. Maksymkiv204880
LMay 5 · 13:25S. Kryvoshyi305101141O. Maksymkiv4211128113
LMar 2 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi4061111932O. Maksymkiv50119811113
WJan 11 · 14:55S. Kryvoshyi331111113O. Maksymkiv142840
S. Kryvoshyi10
LSep 16 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.2574100D. Kasian1.571111123LSep 15 · 18:55D. Kasian1.801111113S. Kryvoshyi1.917980WSep 15 · 17:25S. Kryvoshyi2.0011117113V. Hel1.73771171LSep 15 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.441711113S. Kryvoshyi2.6315970WSep 15 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv2.508820S. Kryvoshyi1.501111113WSep 15 · 12:25O. Melnik3.25117641S. Kryvoshyi1.3381111113LSep 8 · 18:25V. Dobrovolskyi1.3611119113S. Kryvoshyi3.00831191WSep 8 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.10101181262S. Kryvoshyi1.671291110113LSep 8 · 15:55D. Kozoriz1.611112113S. Kryvoshyi2.2061030WSep 8 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.40815371S. Kryvoshyi2.75111311113
O. Maksymkiv10
LSep 16 · 04:55D. Belanchik1.9181111113O. Maksymkiv1.80118671LSep 15 · 17:55O. Maksymkiv3.4011117572O. Melnik1.30891111113LSep 15 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv3.4011911762K. Tkachenko1.30711811113LSep 15 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv2.205650D. Kasian1.611111113LSep 15 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv2.508820S. Kryvoshyi1.501111113WSep 15 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv1.91471311113V. Hel1.80111111832LSep 9 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv3.75521171D. Kozoriz1.2511117113LSep 9 · 09:25D. Belanchik2.10121111123O. Maksymkiv1.671437101WSep 9 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.4411115492O. Maksymkiv2.63741111113WSep 9 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv2.6311115113A. Didyk1.44571151
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