TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131220
Played Sep 15Finished
Danylo Kasian
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119118––––
Serhii Kryvoshyi
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDanylo Kasian to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDanylo Kasian above · Serhii Kryvoshyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 57 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Danylo Kasian at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Danylo Kasian 1–0 Serhii Kryvoshyi Serhii Kryvoshyi has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:19What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kasian
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kasian 1322 vs Kryvoshyi 1287
Kasian
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasian 80% vs Kryvoshyi 60%
Kasian
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasian 70% vs Kryvoshyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasian +2 · Kryvoshyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kasian)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasian form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasian 1.80 / Kryvoshyi 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kasian)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13131220
Kasian1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 13 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it50% 5 of 10
Kryvoshyi1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 23 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKasian1wins
AwayKryvoshyi0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderKasian leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKasianKryvoshyiKasian − KryvoshyiBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match52.044.0+8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasianKryvoshyiBasisWin rate · lifetime35 / 62 vs 254 / 55756.5%45.6%35 / 62 vs 254 / 557Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.935.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasianKasian 1.80/Kryvoshyi 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kasian · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kasian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 25 · 16:25D. Kasian52911811133S. Kryvoshyi44115116112
D. Kasian10
WSep 15 · 16:55O. Melnik1.73126100D. Kasian2.001411123WSep 15 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv2.205650D. Kasian1.611111113LSep 15 · 13:55D. Kasian2.1051180V. Hel1.671113113WSep 15 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.61971191D. Kasian2.2011117113WAug 25 · 18:25D. Kasian3.001011116123V. Kheresko1.36128811102WAug 25 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi1.83115116112D. Kasian1.83911811133LAug 25 · 15:25D. Kasian2.10813421D. Kozoriz1.67111111113WAug 25 · 14:25A. Didyk1.7310890D. Kasian2.001211113LAug 25 · 12:55D. Kasian2.0011811562D. Ponomarenko1.73611811113WAug 24 · 10:55M. Vivatenko2.251110361D. Kasian1.5791211113
S. Kryvoshyi10
WSep 15 · 17:25S. Kryvoshyi2.0011117113V. Hel1.73771171LSep 15 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.441711113S. Kryvoshyi2.6315970WSep 15 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv2.508820S. Kryvoshyi1.501111113WSep 15 · 12:25O. Melnik3.25117641S. Kryvoshyi1.3381111113LSep 8 · 18:25V. Dobrovolskyi1.3611119113S. Kryvoshyi3.00831191WSep 8 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.10101181262S. Kryvoshyi1.671291110113LSep 8 · 15:55D. Kozoriz1.611112113S. Kryvoshyi2.2061030WSep 8 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.40815371S. Kryvoshyi2.75111311113LSep 8 · 11:55D. Belanchik2.101111113S. Kryvoshyi1.679990LAug 25 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi1.83115116112D. Kasian1.83911811133
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