TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13137031
Played Sep 16Finished
Valerii Hel
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
14121121113711611
Danylo Kasian
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:17 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timeDanylo Kasian to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Hel above · Danylo Kasian below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 98 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Danylo Kasian at 62.2%
98 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Hel 1–1 Danylo Kasian Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:17What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Hel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hel 1302 vs Kasian 1356
Kasian
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hel 60% vs Kasian 80%
Kasian
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hel 40% vs Kasian 80%
Kasian
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hel +1 · Kasian +4
Kasian
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Hel) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasian form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHel 1.67 / Kasian 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Hel)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13137031
Hel1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 53 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Kasian2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog58% won 15 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back36% 5 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeHel1wins
AwayKasian1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricHelKasianH − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match42.036.5+5.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHelKasianBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 219 vs 38 / 6556.6%58.5%124 / 219 vs 38 / 65Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HelHel 1.67/Kasian 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kasian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 16 · 06:25V. Hel49141111762D. Kasian491221311113
WSep 15 · 13:55V. Hel351113113D. Kasian2451180
V. Hel10
WSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113LSep 15 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57116811113V. Hel2.2531111762LSep 15 · 17:25S. Kryvoshyi2.0011117113V. Hel1.73771171WSep 15 · 15:55O. Melnik2.385116101V. Hel1.5311411123WSep 15 · 13:55D. Kasian2.1051180V. Hel1.671113113LSep 15 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv1.91471311113V. Hel1.80111111832LAug 6 · 18:25V. Hel2.206111251M. Styranets1.6111514113LAug 6 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi4.5081115113V. Hel1.171171381WAug 6 · 15:25V. Hel1.571111113A. Didyk2.257780LAug 6 · 14:25K. Tkachenko1.6711811113V. Hel2.10911891
D. Kasian10
WSep 16 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.2574100D. Kasian1.571111123WSep 15 · 18:55D. Kasian1.801111113S. Kryvoshyi1.917980WSep 15 · 16:55O. Melnik1.73126100D. Kasian2.001411123WSep 15 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv2.205650D. Kasian1.611111113LSep 15 · 13:55D. Kasian2.1051180V. Hel1.671113113WSep 15 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.61971191D. Kasian2.2011117113WAug 25 · 18:25D. Kasian3.001011116123V. Kheresko1.36128811102WAug 25 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi1.83115116112D. Kasian1.83911811133LAug 25 · 15:25D. Kasian2.10813421D. Kozoriz1.67111111113WAug 25 · 14:25A. Didyk1.7310890D. Kasian2.001211113
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