TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136490
Played Sep 16Finished
Valerii Hel
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111012115711––
Oleh Maksymkiv
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Hel above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Hel 5–10 Oleh Maksymkiv Valerii Hel has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:39What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Maksymkiv
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hel 1299 vs Maksymkiv 1182
Hel
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hel 40% vs Maksymkiv 0%
Hel
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hel 40% vs Maksymkiv 10%
Hel
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hel +1 · Maksymkiv -5
Maksymkiv
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hel) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHel 1.80 / Maksymkiv 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hel)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13136490
Hel1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 53 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Maksymkiv1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 57 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back21% 17 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHel2wins
AwayMaksymkiv8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHel0%0 of 3
AwayMaksymkiv71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hel3Maksymkiv7n = 10Maksymkiv took 7 of 10
S2Hel5Maksymkiv5n = 10split evenly
S3Hel4Maksymkiv6n = 10Maksymkiv took 6 of 10
S4Hel3Maksymkiv7n = 10Maksymkiv took 7 of 10
S5Hel2Maksymkiv3n = 5Maksymkiv took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHelMaksymkivH − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.643.8−3.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHelMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 221 vs 382 / 73656.6%51.9%125 / 221 vs 382 / 736Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HelHel 1.80/Maksymkiv 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 11:55V. Hel44111111832O. Maksymkiv46471311113
WJul 15 · 04:25V. Hel50712911113O. Maksymkiv44111011842
LJul 9 · 05:55V. Hel4191111101O. Maksymkiv4411138123
LJun 24 · 06:25V. Hel29114681O. Maksymkiv3411111113
LJun 23 · 13:55V. Hel3941111942O. Maksymkiv46114911113
LJun 17 · 05:25V. Hel386129111O. Maksymkiv45111011133
LJun 14 · 15:25V. Hel35961191O. Maksymkiv3711114113
LJun 5 · 05:25V. Hel27117451O. Maksymkiv4181111113
LMay 29 · 04:55V. Hel496111111102O. Maksymkiv47111374123
WMay 5 · 17:25V. Hel54712915113O. Maksymkiv541110111392
V. Hel10
WSep 16 · 09:25D. Belanchik1.67101112562V. Hel2.101271011113LSep 16 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.911011117113V. Hel1.8012881192LSep 16 · 06:25V. Hel1.67141111762D. Kasian2.101221311113WSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113LSep 15 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57116811113V. Hel2.2531111762LSep 15 · 17:25S. Kryvoshyi2.0011117113V. Hel1.73771171WSep 15 · 15:55O. Melnik2.385116101V. Hel1.5311411123WSep 15 · 13:55D. Kasian2.1051180V. Hel1.671113113LSep 15 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv1.91471311113V. Hel1.80111111832LAug 6 · 18:25V. Hel2.206111251M. Styranets1.6111514113
O. Maksymkiv10
LSep 16 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv2.75145981D. Kasian1.40121111113LSep 16 · 07:55O. Melnik1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.753730LSep 16 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.755420LSep 16 · 04:55D. Belanchik1.9181111113O. Maksymkiv1.80118671LSep 15 · 17:55O. Maksymkiv3.4011117572O. Melnik1.30891111113LSep 15 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv3.4011911762K. Tkachenko1.30711811113LSep 15 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv2.205650D. Kasian1.611111113LSep 15 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv2.508820S. Kryvoshyi1.501111113WSep 15 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv1.91471311113V. Hel1.80111111832LSep 9 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv3.75521171D. Kozoriz1.2511117113
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