TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136495
Played Sep 16Finished
Oleh Maksymkiv
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1412511911811––
Danylo Kasian
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:41 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeDanylo Kasian to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Danylo Kasian below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Danylo Kasian at 67.7%
81 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 3–5 Danylo Kasian Oleh Maksymkiv has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:41What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kasian
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Kasian
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1188 vs Kasian 1365
Kasian
Correct
both rated, 177 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 0% vs Kasian 100%
Kasian
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 10% vs Kasian 90%
Kasian
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv -5 · Kasian +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Kasian) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasian form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 2.75 / Kasian 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Kasian)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13136495
Maksymkiv2.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 57 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back21% 17 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Kasian1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 15 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it58% 7 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv3wins
AwayKasian5wins
4 of 8 to a deciderKasian leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkiv50%3 of 6
AwayKasiann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv6Kasian2n = 8Maksymkiv took 6 of 8
S2Maksymkiv3Kasian5n = 8Kasian took 5 of 8
S3Maksymkiv3Kasian5n = 8Kasian took 5 of 8
S4Maksymkiv1Kasian6n = 7Kasian took 6 of 7
S5Maksymkiv2Kasian2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMaksymkivKasianM − KBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match39.242.4−3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivKasianBasisWin rate · lifetime382 / 735 vs 39 / 6652%59.1%382 / 735 vs 39 / 66Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasianMaksymkiv 2.75/Kasian 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Kasian · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kasian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 15 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv165650D. Kasian331111113
LAug 23 · 15:25O. Maksymkiv49111381072D. Kasian549111112113
WAug 17 · 09:25O. Maksymkiv4711119163D. Kasian334411141
LAug 14 · 04:55O. Maksymkiv4211511872D. Kasian49711911113
LAug 13 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv27511651D. Kasian4211911113
WAug 10 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv521110119113D. Kasian3631221182
WJul 30 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv52126158113D. Kasian541011131192
LJul 29 · 15:55O. Maksymkiv29112791D. Kasian3851111113
O. Maksymkiv10
LSep 16 · 07:55O. Melnik1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.753730LSep 16 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.755420LSep 16 · 04:55D. Belanchik1.9181111113O. Maksymkiv1.80118671LSep 15 · 17:55O. Maksymkiv3.4011117572O. Melnik1.30891111113LSep 15 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv3.4011911762K. Tkachenko1.30711811113LSep 15 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv2.205650D. Kasian1.611111113LSep 15 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv2.508820S. Kryvoshyi1.501111113WSep 15 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv1.91471311113V. Hel1.80111111832LSep 9 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv3.75521171D. Kozoriz1.2511117113LSep 9 · 09:25D. Belanchik2.10121111123O. Maksymkiv1.671437101
D. Kasian10
WSep 16 · 08:25D. Belanchik2.758950D. Kasian1.401111113WSep 16 · 06:25V. Hel1.67141111762D. Kasian2.101221311113WSep 16 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.2574100D. Kasian1.571111123WSep 15 · 18:55D. Kasian1.801111113S. Kryvoshyi1.917980WSep 15 · 16:55O. Melnik1.73126100D. Kasian2.001411123WSep 15 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv2.205650D. Kasian1.611111113LSep 15 · 13:55D. Kasian2.1051180V. Hel1.671113113WSep 15 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.61971191D. Kasian2.2011117113WAug 25 · 18:25D. Kasian3.001011116123V. Kheresko1.36128811102WAug 25 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi1.83115116112D. Kasian1.83911811133
Upcoming Matches
O. Maksymkiv
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