TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142798
Played Sep 17Finished
Orest Melnik
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
15179111113––––
Oleh Maksymkiv
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched — 75.8% is still 75.8%
Graded at full timeOrest Melnik to win
75.8%
75.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 76 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Orest Melnik at 75.8%
76 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 15–1 Oleh Maksymkiv Oleh Maksymkiv has won 1 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:25What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Melnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-1 in 16
Melnik
Wrong
gap of 14 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1238 vs Maksymkiv 1181
Melnik
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 60% vs Maksymkiv 20%
Melnik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 40% vs Maksymkiv 10%
Melnik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +2 · Maksymkiv -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Melnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.30 / Maksymkiv 3.40
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Melnik)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13142798
Melnik1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite75% won 45 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Maksymkiv3.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 57 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik9wins
AwayMaksymkiv1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik100%8 of 8
AwayMaksymkivn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik8Maksymkiv2n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S2Melnik6Maksymkiv4n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S3Melnik7Maksymkiv3n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S4Melnik4Maksymkiv3n = 7Melnik took 4 of 7
S5Melnik3Maksymkiv0n = 3Melnik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikMaksymkivMelnik − MaksymkivBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.930.5+10.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 368 vs 383 / 73847%51.9%173 / 368 vs 383 / 738Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.30/Maksymkiv 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.8%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 07:55O. Melnik331111113O. Maksymkiv133730
WSep 15 · 17:55O. Melnik50891111113O. Maksymkiv4111117572
WSep 2 · 05:25O. Melnik331111113O. Maksymkiv156540
WAug 19 · 11:25O. Melnik4014411113O. Maksymkiv361211851
WAug 13 · 18:25O. Melnik4011117113O. Maksymkiv25451151
WJul 15 · 06:25O. Melnik341211113O. Maksymkiv1910540
WJul 14 · 14:55O. Melnik4211119113O. Maksymkiv25331181
WJul 9 · 08:55O. Melnik5611101112123O. Maksymkiv51912614102
LJul 7 · 14:55O. Melnik379111071O. Maksymkiv3911512113
WJul 1 · 04:55O. Melnik44116115113O. Maksymkiv4171181142
O. Melnik10
WSep 17 · 12:55V. Hel1.441195101O. Melnik2.6381111123WSep 16 · 10:55O. Melnik2.5081211143D. Kasian1.5011104121LSep 16 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.30911119113O. Melnik3.4011251192WSep 16 · 07:55O. Melnik1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.753730LSep 16 · 06:55D. Belanchik2.2511811113O. Melnik1.57811691LSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113WSep 15 · 17:55O. Maksymkiv3.4011117572O. Melnik1.30891111113LSep 15 · 16:55O. Melnik1.73126100D. Kasian2.001411123LSep 15 · 15:55O. Melnik2.385116101V. Hel1.5311411123LSep 15 · 14:25O. Melnik4.509490K. Tkachenko1.171111113
O. Maksymkiv10
LSep 17 · 11:55M. Treschetka1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.754840WSep 16 · 11:25V. Hel1.808101171O. Maksymkiv1.9111125113LSep 16 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv2.75145981D. Kasian1.40121111113LSep 16 · 07:55O. Melnik1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.753730LSep 16 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.755420LSep 16 · 04:55D. Belanchik1.9181111113O. Maksymkiv1.80118671LSep 15 · 17:55O. Maksymkiv3.4011117572O. Melnik1.30891111113LSep 15 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv3.4011911762K. Tkachenko1.30711811113LSep 15 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv2.205650D. Kasian1.611111113LSep 15 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv2.508820S. Kryvoshyi1.501111113
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