TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142097
Played Sep 17Finished
Valerii Hel
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1189115111012––
Orest Melnik
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeValerii Hel to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Hel above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 77 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Valerii Hel at 65.7%
77 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Hel 10–5 Orest Melnik Orest Melnik has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:35What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Hel
Wrong
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hel 1283 vs Melnik 1224
Hel
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hel 40% vs Melnik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hel 40% vs Melnik 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hel -1 · Melnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Hel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHel 1.44 / Melnik 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Hel)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13142097
Hel1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 54 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Melnik2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 37 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back14% 12 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHel6wins
AwayMelnik4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHel leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHel85.7%6 of 7
AwayMelnik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hel7Melnik3n = 10Hel took 7 of 10
S2Hel4Melnik6n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S3Hel5Melnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Hel4Melnik4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHelMelnikH − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.536.7+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHelMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 222 vs 172 / 36856.3%46.7%125 / 222 vs 172 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.735.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HelHel 1.44/Melnik 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 05:25V. Hel331111113O. Melnik187380
WSep 15 · 15:55V. Hel3811411123O. Melnik325116101
WAug 5 · 05:25V. Hel49117146113O. Melnik42611121122
WAug 4 · 13:55V. Hel4411157113O. Melnik407131191
LJul 29 · 05:25V. Hel351171161O. Melnik4381113113
WJul 21 · 13:55V. Hel4811917113O. Melnik438111591
LJul 15 · 07:25V. Hel35712971O. Melnik43111011113
WJul 9 · 07:55V. Hel4211911113O. Melnik34811961
LJun 10 · 10:55V. Hel189270O. Melnik331111113
LJun 9 · 18:25V. Hel33711691O. Melnik3911611113
V. Hel10
LSep 17 · 14:25V. Kheresko2.7511116113V. Hel1.40691161LSep 16 · 11:25V. Hel1.808101171O. Maksymkiv1.9111125113WSep 16 · 09:25D. Belanchik1.67101112562V. Hel2.101271011113LSep 16 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.911011117113V. Hel1.8012881192LSep 16 · 06:25V. Hel1.67141111762D. Kasian2.101221311113WSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113LSep 15 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57116811113V. Hel2.2531111762LSep 15 · 17:25S. Kryvoshyi2.0011117113V. Hel1.73771171WSep 15 · 15:55O. Melnik2.385116101V. Hel1.5311411123WSep 15 · 13:55D. Kasian2.1051180V. Hel1.671113113
O. Melnik10
LSep 17 · 13:55O. Melnik1.30159110O. Maksymkiv3.401711133WSep 16 · 10:55O. Melnik2.5081211143D. Kasian1.5011104121LSep 16 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.30911119113O. Melnik3.4011251192WSep 16 · 07:55O. Melnik1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.753730LSep 16 · 06:55D. Belanchik2.2511811113O. Melnik1.57811691LSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113WSep 15 · 17:55O. Maksymkiv3.4011117572O. Melnik1.30891111113LSep 15 · 16:55O. Melnik1.73126100D. Kasian2.001411123LSep 15 · 15:55O. Melnik2.385116101V. Hel1.5311411123LSep 15 · 14:25O. Melnik4.509490K. Tkachenko1.171111113
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